NWS Updates October Outlook With Warm West and Wet South Pattern

The National Weather Service updated its October outlook on October 9, 2026, showing warmer-than-normal conditions likely across much of the West and parts of the central United States, while wetter conditions are favored across the southern tier because of evolving El Niño impacts.

The latest forecast from the NWS Climate Prediction Center continues earlier trends, with the strongest warmth signals in California, western Nevada, southern Oregon and Florida. The outlook also indicates drier conditions from parts of the northern Plains toward the West Coast.

AccuWeather meteorologist Peyton Simmers said October will remain warmer than average overall, but some regions may still experience brief cold periods.

"The month of October is expected to be relatively above average across much of the United States, but there will be pockets of cool air across the Great Lakes and Northeast, with one notable cold shot coming next week that can lead to frost/freeze potential," said Peyton Simmers, AccuWeather meteorologist.

Simmers said western warmth and dryness could continue through October, increasing wildfire concerns in some areas. The forecast also noted that El Niño effects typically become stronger as fall moves toward winter.

"However, El Niño effects tend to get stronger as fall progresses towards winter." said Peyton Simmers, AccuWeather meteorologist.

NOAA Climate Prediction Center meteorologist Anthony Artusa described the temperature pattern as favoring above-normal averages in much of the western United States and several inland regions.

"The temperature outlook for October favors above-normal monthly average temperatures for nearly all areas west of the Continental Divide." said Anthony Artusa, NOAA Climate Prediction Center meteorologist.

Artusa highlighted areas with the strongest confidence for unusual warmth, including parts of the western United States and Florida.

"The highest chances of above-normal temperatures are indicated over California and parts of western Nevada and southern Oregon, as well as over most of the Florida Peninsula." said Anthony Artusa, NOAA Climate Prediction Center meteorologist.

The precipitation outlook shows a different pattern, with wetter conditions expected in the southern United States while much of the northern and western regions lean drier.

"The updated precipitation outlook for October favors above-normal precipitation for most of the southern tier of the contiguous U.S., from southern Arizona eastward across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and the Southeast," said Anthony Artusa, NOAA Climate Prediction Center meteorologist.

Artusa said cooler air surges from Canada could contribute to stalled fronts and increased moisture in parts of the South during early October.

"The respective cold fronts representing the leading edges of these cooler surges are forecast to stall across the deep South, accompanied by easterly surface flow and increasingly moist conditions," said Anthony Artusa, NOAA Climate Prediction Center meteorologist.

Seasonal models also point toward a potentially wetter winter pattern, although snowfall outcomes will depend on how temperatures interact with storm systems. Capital Weather Gang reported that model forecasts show above-normal precipitation risks along parts of the East Coast.

Artusa also noted that late-season tropical activity could affect the Southwest as El Niño and Pacific conditions evolve.

"This fall, given the current strength of El Niño and the very active (Pacific) tropical cyclone season thus far, the possibility of a tropical system affecting the Southwest extends into the autumn season even later than usual." said Anthony Artusa, NOAA Climate Prediction Center meteorologist.