El Niño Reaches Record Strength Across Pacific and Raises Climate Risks

A record-strength El Niño event is developing across the Pacific Ocean, with scientists warning on October 13, 2026 that unusually high sea temperatures and atmospheric effects could influence global weather, food production, and economic activity into 2027.

According to BBC, measurements in the central-eastern Pacific have exceeded the previous daily sea surface temperature record set during the strong 2015 El Niño. Temperatures above 30C have also been recorded in parts of the tropical Pacific.

Australian and US forecasters are using the Relative Ocean El Niño Index to compare current conditions after accounting for long-term ocean warming. The Bureau of Meteorology's weekly data, which began in 2008, has exceeded levels recorded during the December 2015 event.

"We are currently witnessing an El Niño event that is unprecedented in the historical record," said Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth.

Hausfather said the current warming extends beyond the traditional El Niño monitoring region, with ocean heat spreading across wider parts of the Pacific and toward the Gulf of Mexico.

"The strength of El Niño this year is spilling out of the traditional El Niño region," said Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth.

Strong El Niño events often increase global temperatures by releasing additional ocean heat into the atmosphere. The World Meteorological Organisation has reported drought and flood-related disruptions in several regions, including concerns about food security in East Africa and the Asia-Pacific.

"Forecasters predict strong intensity by winter, which will likely arrive when supply chains are already stressed by tariff-driven sourcing disruptions, Strait of Hormuz shipping restrictions, and elevated fertilizer costs," said Jonathan Colehower, managing director of supply chain practice at UST, as cited by The Guardian.

The Guardian reported that agricultural production, transportation, and supply chains could face additional pressure, affecting commodities including coffee, chocolate, and palm oil. The World Food Programme estimated that 274 million people in 45 countries could face food insecurity by the end of next year.

"We are currently witnessing an El Niño event that is unprecedented in the historical record," said Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth.

Economic research from LSEG found that El Niño can influence agriculture, inflation, hydropower, and logistics, although its relationship with stock market performance varies. Brazil was identified as an example where economic exposure and market responses do not always move together.

Forecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate the event is expected to peak in December 2026.