Met Office Warns UK Faces Cooler Weather After El Nino Update

The UK is set for cooler conditions as the Met Office forecasts temperatures to fall after a mild autumn spell, while scientists monitor a strong El Nino event that could influence global weather patterns and later winter risks.

The Met Office said temperatures in London could drop from around 21C on Tuesday to about 15C on Friday, with colder nights expected by the weekend. The forecaster said a band of rain will move south before brighter conditions return.

According to the Met Office outlook for Thursday to Saturday, cooler air will spread across the country by Friday. The agency said high pressure is expected to remain close to the UK through much of the second half of October.

"Winds fall lighter as a band of rain slowly moves south across the country. Cooler air moves in by Friday, with largely dry and bright weather for the weekend." the Met Office said.

The Met Office also reported that the current El Nino is unprecedented in strength and could affect later winter patterns through possible changes involving the stratospheric polar vortex.

"High pressure is expected to lie close to or across the UK through much of this period. This will mean largely fine and dry weather for many, perhaps with some overnight mist and fog patches. Weak frontal systems could bring some rain at times and if this happens it is most likely in the far south or perhaps far north of the UK.

Winds are expected to be mostly light. Temperatures will likely be around normal for the time of year, with frosty mornings in the usual prone areas." the Met Office said.

Climate experts said El Nino can amplify existing weather extremes. Professor Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, told The i Paper that the event is occurring alongside a changing climate.

"This is probably the strongest El Nino that we will have experienced under our changing climate. [Climate change is behind] these extreme weather events, and all the El Niño is doing is amplifying these." said Professor Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society.

Bentley said El Nino effects are strongest around the Pacific basin but can influence other regions. She noted that autumn and winter patterns in Europe may vary depending on location.

"There is some evidence that El Niño years can bring wetter conditions to parts of the western Mediterranean during autumn, while later in autumn and into winter the signal tends to shift towards wetter, stormier conditions across western and northern Europe." said Professor Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society.

The i Paper reported that El Nino releases heat into the atmosphere and can increase the intensity of heatwaves, including in Europe. The event is expected to peak in November or December and last until at least February.

"It’s the Pacific Basin that sees the greatest impact from the El Nino as it’s closely located to it." said Professor Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society.

River cruise operators are also monitoring weather-related disruptions. The Cruise Lines International Association said companies assess conditions with authorities and may adjust itineraries when necessary.

"Cruise lines closely monitor river conditions and work with local authorities and operational teams to assess any potential impact on itineraries. Where adjustments are necessary, [options] may include amended sailing schedules, alternative excursions, transfers by road or arrangements for guests to continue their journey on another vessel." said a spokesperson for the Cruise Lines International Association.