Lancet Report Identifies 17 Global Health Threats Through 2100

A global health assessment published in The Lancet has identified 17 major threats that could severely damage human health by 2100. Drawing on evidence from more than 200 countries, the assessment highlights nuclear war and the deliberate misuse of artificial intelligence as particularly dangerous risks, alongside climate change, infectious diseases, inequality and preventable illnesses.

The report examines how these threats could shorten healthy life expectancy and increase preventable deaths over the coming decades. Researchers considered risks across health, economics, national security, governance and technology, assessing both their potential consequences and the possibility of reducing their impact through coordinated action.

The assessment describes these dangers as "catastrophic" risks, emphasizing that their consequences could extend far beyond individual countries or communities. It does not predict that human civilization will collapse by 2100, but identifies scenarios that require preventive measures.

Artificial intelligence misuse and nuclear conflict stand out because either could have consequences on a global scale. The assessment warns that powerful AI systems could be exploited to support biological weapon development, disrupt electricity infrastructure or spread coordinated disinformation. Researchers also acknowledge uncertainty about the full range of potential AI-related dangers.

Nuclear war presents a different but established threat. A large-scale exchange could destroy cities and release enough soot into the atmosphere to reduce sunlight, disrupt agricultural production and increase the risk of worldwide famine. The consequences would extend beyond the countries directly involved in the conflict.

The report notes that the likelihood of human extinction remains low, but the potential severity of such an outcome makes prevention important. Its assessment places these risks within a wider network of threats that can compound one another.

Climate change and air pollution feature alongside emerging pandemics, infectious diseases and antimicrobial resistance. The latter describes situations in which microorganisms no longer respond effectively to medicines, making infections more difficult to treat and potentially undermining modern medical care.

Other identified threats include conventional warfare, reductions in international health assistance, childhood hunger, poverty, limited access to education, mental health problems and unhealthy aging. The assessment also considers metabolic and lifestyle-related risks, including obesity, high blood pressure, smoking and heavy alcohol consumption.

To measure health consequences, researchers used disability-adjusted life years, a metric that estimates the combined burden of premature death and time lived with illness or disability. The approach also helps assess how much of that lost healthy life could potentially be recovered through effective interventions.

The assessment explains that threats often reinforce one another rather than operating independently. Climate change can undermine food production, place additional pressure on health services and contribute to the spread of infectious diseases. Poverty and inequality can further limit communities' ability to recover from emergencies.

Reduced international health support can leave lower-income countries more exposed to disease outbreaks and other crises. When several risks occur simultaneously, vulnerable populations may face a disproportionate share of the consequences.

The report identifies stronger health systems, investment in scientific research and improved early-warning capabilities as important responses. Preparedness measures include developing emergency plans, maintaining essential supplies and ensuring that communities understand how to respond when crises occur.

It also highlights the importance of developing vaccines, medicines and climate solutions while improving access to these advances. Governments and international organizations are encouraged to identify emerging threats early and coordinate responses across public health, environmental policy, education and national security.