Lancet Identifies 17 Global Threats to Health by 2100

A global commission of health researchers has identified 17 interconnected threats that could severely damage human health and wellbeing through 2100, warning that nuclear conflict and the malicious use of artificial intelligence could potentially cause human extinction. Published in The Lancet on October 10, 2026, the assessment calls for coordinated international action to reduce the risks before they escalate into major crises.

The commission brought together 35 experts from different industries and disciplines to assess threats using data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Global Burden of Disease study. Researchers estimated the years of healthy life that populations could lose through illness, disability and premature death under different future scenarios.

According to the assessment, the 17 threats could collectively cause enormous health losses if current trajectories continue. The researchers emphasized that the list reflects both the potential severity of each threat and the availability of realistic interventions, rather than establishing a simple ranking of dangers.

Nuclear conflict and malicious artificial intelligence were identified as the two threats with potential extinction-level consequences. The report highlighted scenarios involving nuclear warfare that could disrupt sunlight and trigger widespread famine, as well as the possible development of biological weapons using AI.

The commission stressed that estimates of AI-related catastrophe remain theoretical because no malicious AI event of truly global magnitude has occurred. Forecasts from experts consulted during the research also varied substantially in their assessments of the likelihood of an AI-driven disaster.

Christopher Murray, co-chair of the commission and director of the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, said the findings demonstrate both the seriousness of the risks and the possibility of preventing their worst consequences.

"The striking finding is not only the scale of these threats, but that humanity still has the agency to act," said Murray.

The report estimated that malicious AI could account for approximately 10.4 billion years of healthy life lost worldwide by 2100, placing its potential impact in the same broad range as some other major health risks. The researchers cautioned that this projection differs from estimates for established conditions because it relies on theoretical scenarios rather than observed global catastrophes.

Obesity presents a more measurable challenge. The assessment cited projections suggesting that overweight and obesity could affect 60% of adults and one-third of children worldwide by 2050. These conditions are associated with numerous adverse health outcomes and are linked to factors including excessive calorie consumption and insufficient physical activity.

The remaining catastrophic threats include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, climate change, conventional conflict, reductions in international aid, high alcohol consumption, high blood pressure, income inequality, low educational attainment, naturally occurring pandemics, poor mental health, smoking and unhealthy ageing.

The commission found that the consequences vary by region. Noncommunicable diseases, including obesity and poor mental health, represent particularly significant challenges in higher-income regions, while low educational attainment contributes substantially to health losses in lower-income areas.

Climate policy could also make a considerable difference. According to the assessment reported by The Guardian, limiting global warming to approximately 1.8 degrees Celsius rather than allowing it to reach 4.4 degrees Celsius could prevent 1.89 billion years of healthy life from being lost.

International health assistance represents another major concern. The commission estimated that the collapse or substantial reduction of overseas health aid could result in as many as 1.5 billion disability-adjusted life years lost before 2100, with nearly 70% of the burden falling on sub-Saharan Africa.

Ibrahim Abubakar, a commission member and professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London, said the assessment was intended to help policymakers understand where preventive action could make a difference.

"We are not starting from a point of view of 'oh look, we want to scare you – we've got X many threats facing humanity'. We're starting from the premise that if you are a policymaker today, whether at the global multilateral level or at the national level, these are the potential threats that you could face, and this is the magnitude by which, if you act, you can actually make a difference," said Abubakar.

The researchers recommended strengthening health systems, investing in scientific innovation, improving monitoring and preparedness, and ensuring that new technologies and medical advances are accessible across countries. They also identified public trust, international cooperation, resilient food systems and greater social equity as important conditions for responding effectively.

Natalia Kanem, former executive director of the United Nations Population Fund and co-chair of the commission, said governments and communities must act before emerging dangers develop into larger crises.

"Governments and communities must act decisively starting today, to protect health and build a fairer, more peaceful and more secure future for the coming generations," said Kanem.

The commission's findings were scheduled to be presented at the World Health Summit in Berlin, Germany, on October 11, 2026. The assessment is expected to be updated annually as new evidence emerges and global risks change.