COP31 Pushes Countries to Turn Climate Pledges Into Action

Global climate negotiations will return to Antalya, Turkey, from November 9 to 20, as representatives from around the world gather for COP31 to accelerate existing environmental commitments. The United Nations climate summit aims to translate previous agreements into practical measures covering renewable energy, greenhouse gas reductions and financial assistance for developing countries.

This year's meeting coincides with the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement entering into force. The United States, historically the world's largest cumulative greenhouse gas emitter and currently the second-largest emitter, will not send an official delegation following its formal withdrawal from the agreement at the beginning of 2026. Members of Congress and American businesses are nevertheless expected to attend.

COP31 President Murat Kurum has prioritized implementation over additional climate promises. His Action Agenda identifies ten areas, including clean energy, electrification, methane reduction, zero waste and climate-resilient cities.

One voluntary proposal, known as the 35-by-35 pledge, seeks to increase electricity's share of total energy consumption from 23 percent currently to 35 percent by 2035. Another initiative encourages governments, businesses and investors to make artificial intelligence more sustainable.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations, global climate projections have improved considerably since the Paris Agreement was negotiated in 2015. At that time, the world was projected to experience 3.7°C–4.8°C of warming by 2100. Under current policies, projected warming has declined to approximately 2.8°C, potentially falling to 2.6°C if the latest climate commitments are fully implemented.

Global solar capacity also expanded to more than ten times its 2015 level by 2025. However, these improvements remain insufficient to prevent dangerous climate impacts. August 2026 joined July 2023 as the hottest month on record globally.

Rick Duke, who served as deputy US special envoy for climate change during the Biden administration, highlighted the parallel progress of international negotiations and practical climate measures.

"The Paris Agreement operates on two tracks — negotiations and action — and it has delivered important progress on both," said Rick Duke, former deputy US special envoy for climate change.

He cited international cooperation on methane emissions and deforestation as examples of progress following the agreement.

"On the action front, for example, in 2021 over 100 countries joined the Global Methane Pledge and a declaration to end deforestation," Duke said.

China has subsequently incorporated methane into its national climate targets, while Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has continued advancing plans to end deforestation in the Amazon.

"That said, the process needs to do a better job holding countries accountable for their national targets and focusing attention on the 'emergency brake' solutions like methane and forests that can cut warming fastest," Duke said.

Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, who works at Berkeley Earth and leads climate research at Stripe, pointed to falling renewable energy costs as an important factor behind the improved global outlook.

"It is difficult to separate out this progress from action countries may have taken in relation to the climate talks themselves, and simply the economics of renewables becoming far cheaper over time," Hausfather said.

He questioned how much of the clean energy transition resulted directly from international negotiations rather than economic developments and national decisions.

"The COP process is sort of like the figurehead on top of all of the hard work that's actually happening," Hausfather said.

Climate financing is expected to become one of the most contentious issues in Antalya. Developing countries want wealthier nations to deliver existing financial commitments, including the COP29 target of mobilizing at least $300 billion annually by 2035 and the COP30 call to at least triple adaptation financing over the same period.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development reported that developed countries provided and mobilized a record $136.7 billion in climate finance in 2024. Developing nations are seeking larger and faster payments, while warning that loans can worsen existing debt pressures.

The debate over fossil fuels will also return after COP30 failed to establish a formal roadmap for transitioning away from them. Although more than eighty countries supported the proposal, the final Belém Political Package omitted the words "fossil fuels" from its official text.

The disagreement follows earlier commitments under the Glasgow Climate Pact at COP26 and the United Arab Emirates Consensus at COP28, which addressed reducing coal power, eliminating inefficient fossil fuel subsidies and transitioning away from fossil fuels.

Emissions reductions will feature prominently through the Mitigation Work Program, although countries have disagreed over whether the initiative should establish stronger emissions-cutting requirements or primarily facilitate dialogue. Negotiators also face unresolved questions about adaptation financing and methods for measuring progress.

Methane reduction remains another priority. More than 150 countries have joined the Global Methane Pledge since its introduction at COP26. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, methane accounts for approximately 30 percent of global warming and offers opportunities for relatively rapid reductions through available, low-cost measures.

The summit will also address a just transition mechanism agreed upon at COP30, designed to strengthen international cooperation and provide technical assistance to economies moving away from carbon-intensive industries.