Weather Agencies Warn of Rising Fire Risks Across Regions

Weather agencies in the United States and Australia warned residents on October 13, 2026, that hot temperatures, dry conditions and stronger winds could increase fire danger in several areas, including the Mid-South, Southern California and Tasmania, as officials monitored possible rapid fire spread.

The National Weather Service in Memphis said the Mid-South would experience near-record heat during the week, with temperatures in the low to mid-90s from Tuesday through Thursday, about 15 degrees above normal for mid-October. Memphis was forecast to reach 93 degrees Tuesday and around 92 degrees Wednesday and Thursday.

According to wknofm.org, the approaching cold front was expected to bring cooler weather by the weekend while increasing the chance of critical fire conditions on Friday. Winds in parts of the Mid-South were forecast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

The National Weather Service also warned Southern California residents about developing fire weather conditions as Santa Ana winds were expected to strengthen Thursday and Friday. The agency said winds could reach 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph, while some hills could see gusts of 50 to 60 mph.

"Moderate to locally strong Santa Ana winds will quickly develop on Thursday, peak Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon, then weaken through the weekend. Meanwhile, dry air will settle over the region and dry out any helpful effects of the recent rains. Fire weather watches are now in effect, which will likely be upgraded to Red Flag Warnings by Wednesday.

Some areas may see Red Flag conditions linger into Saturday. Interior Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties may also see Red Flag conditions on Friday, and a Fire Weather Watch is being considered. If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property." said the National Weather Service.

In Tasmania, the fire danger remained elevated despite cooler weather in some areas, according to lafm.com.au. The Tasmania Fire Service said dry fuels and periods of strong winds could allow fires to spread quickly in parts of the state, including the East Coast.

Matt Lowe, Tasmania Fire Service Deputy Chief Officer, said cooler temperatures and rain in some locations did not eliminate the risk of bushfires.

"People may see rain or colder temperatures and assume the fire risk has eased across Tasmania, but that’s not necessarily the case." said Matt Lowe, Tasmania Fire Service Deputy Chief Officer.

The agency said high fire danger ratings were forecast for several Tasmanian areas, including North East, East Coast, Midlands, South East, Central North and Furneaux Islands.

"Parts of the East Coast remain dry and are expected to experience elevated fire danger this week. Combined with windy conditions, any fire that starts has the potential to spread quickly." said Matt Lowe, Tasmania Fire Service Deputy Chief Officer.

Tasmania Fire Service continued preparing for possible incidents while asking residents to avoid creating ignition sources and ensure fires are fully extinguished.

"Tasmania Fire Service and partner agencies are ready to respond to incidents, but we need everyone to play their part in preventing fires from starting in the first place." said Matt Lowe, Tasmania Fire Service Deputy Chief Officer.

The agency also highlighted that embers from previous fires or burn-offs could remain active and restart under favorable conditions.

"We’re asking people to take care when using anything that could spark a fire and to ensure any campfires, fire pits or recent burn-offs are fully extinguished. Even after rain, embers can remain active and reignite when conditions become favourable." said Matt Lowe, Tasmania Fire Service Deputy Chief Officer.

Cooler weather was expected after the cold front in the Mid-South, with highs in Memphis forecast to drop into the upper 60s on Saturday, according to wknofm.org. In Southern California, the fire weather watch was set to remain in effect until Friday at 10 p.m., according to sacbee.com.

"The current conditions are a timely reminder to prepare for the months ahead." said Matt Lowe, Tasmania Fire Service Deputy Chief Officer.

"Now is a good opportunity to review your bushfire plan, understand the risks in your local area and make sure your property is prepared before the fire season becomes more active." said Matt Lowe, Tasmania Fire Service Deputy Chief Officer.

"If you see a fire, don’t assume a fire has already been reported, and call Triple Zero (000) if you see smoke, flames, or signs of a fire – you could be the first person reporting an incident." said Matt Lowe, Tasmania Fire Service Deputy Chief Officer.