UN Says Global Emissions Must Fall 18 Percent by 2030

The world must rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the long-term damage from global warming, according to a new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) published on October 21, 2026. The report warns that emissions must fall 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035 to give the world a strong chance of limiting warming to 1.7°C above preindustrial levels.

UNEP says the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C is no longer achievable without an overshoot, but reducing the scale and duration of that overshoot remains possible. Governments have failed to translate long-term climate commitments into sufficiently strong immediate action, leaving the world on course for substantially higher temperatures.

According to UNEP's projections, current government policies would lead to global temperatures rising 2.8°C above preindustrial levels. Even if countries fully implemented their updated climate pledges, warming would still reach 2.6°C, increasing risks to ecosystems and human populations worldwide.

Global carbon emissions remained broadly unchanged in 2025 compared with the previous year, according to the report. However, UNEP analysts cautioned against interpreting this as a definitive peak or plateau because geopolitical uncertainty and continued reliance on fossil fuels could reverse progress, despite strong growth in renewable energy.

Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP, said governments had received repeated warnings that time was running out to meet the 1.5°C target established under the Paris climate agreement.

"[We used to say] there's still an opportunity if we make this herculean effort [to stay within the 1.5C limit]," said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP.

Andersen said governments had failed to make the necessary effort, leaving the world beyond the window for achieving the original temperature limit without an overshoot. She nevertheless urged countries to retain the target and minimize the time temperatures remain above it.

"We can make the overshoot as brief and as short as possible. It's not time to throw in the towel and give up. This is about how to find our way back, as shortly and quickly as possible," said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP.

The United States, the world's second-largest emitter after China, has withdrawn from the Paris climate agreement under Donald Trump and is threatening to reverse its longstanding decline in greenhouse gas emissions. The report also points to weak national commitments submitted ahead of the COP30 climate summit in Brazil in November 2025.

Bill Hare, chief executive of the Climate Analytics think tank, called for major fossil fuel producers to confront the scientific evidence and reduce their contribution to global warming.

"All governments have a job to do, but in particular it is time for major fossil fuel producers such as the US and Saudi Arabia, which produce 20-25% of fossil fuels globally, to stop playing politics and face the scientific reality. Right now they are looking at the fire, denying it exists and pouring more petrol on it, while their own citizens increasingly face searing heat, wildfires and other impacts," said Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics.

Mohamed Adow, director of the think tank Power Shift Africa, said renewable energy technologies were advancing rapidly, but political decisions were not moving the world away from fossil fuels quickly enough.

"The tragedy is that we have the solutions within our grasp. Solar and wind power are growing far faster than anyone expected, yet governments are still failing to move away from fossil fuels quickly enough. The technology is racing ahead while political leadership is dragging its feet," said Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa.

The gap between national commitments and climate targets is expected to be addressed through the Paris agreement's global stocktake, a review of progress scheduled for 2028. However, uncertainty has emerged after the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change failed to establish a timetable for publishing its next report before that assessment.

Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said disagreements over the timing of scientific assessments should not delay government action. He cited projections showing that emissions under current national commitments would remain substantially above the level needed to limit warming.

"If all current national commitments are implemented, global emissions are projected to reach approximately 50 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annually by 2035, when they should be below 35 gigatonnes. The science is already clear. Closing that gap is a question of political action, not a lack of scientific evidence," said Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

UNEP also identified methane reductions as a potential way to slow warming more quickly. The report states that methane is 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas.