Paul Tudor Jones Sees Oil Rising Another 25 Dollars Amid Iran Conflict

Prolonged tensions between the United States and Iran could push crude oil prices substantially higher, investor Paul Tudor Jones warned on October 13, 2026. The Tudor Investment founder and chief investment officer expects oil to gain another $20 to $25 per barrel, citing the lack of a likely diplomatic breakthrough before the November midterm elections and the potential consequences for US stocks.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures traded at approximately $92.50 per barrel on Tuesday morning, according to CNBC. A rally of the magnitude Jones anticipates would lift prices above the previous 2026 closing high of just under $113 per barrel.

Jones outlined his outlook during an appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box, pointing to the unresolved conflict as a key factor supporting his bullish view on oil.

"I am long oil... bullish oil...I think it can rally another $20 or $25 bucks," said Jones, founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment.

The investor also questioned whether diplomatic progress could occur before Americans vote in November, suggesting that the conflict's trajectory would remain a significant concern for energy markets in the near term.

"If something to ameliorate the situation was going to happen, it would have happened already before the midterms," Jones said.

Oil's potential advance presents another challenge for equities, which must contend with geopolitical uncertainty alongside other market pressures. Jones said a rally of that size would be particularly damaging to investor sentiment.

"absolutely totally hate it," Jones said of how the equity market would respond to the potential oil rally.

Market performance earlier in the conflict offered a measure of historical context. After the US-Iran war began on February 28, the S&P 500 fell slightly more than 7% at its late-March low, a smaller decline than analysts had anticipated given the surge in oil prices, according to CNBC.

US crude prices climbed sharply in March and reached their peak in early April before retreating below $70 per barrel in June. Prices began recovering in July as tensions in the Middle East intensified and uncertainty persisted over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments.

Crude subsequently approached $106 per barrel in September before pulling back from those levels. The latest price recovery has renewed attention on the economic consequences of an extended regional conflict.

Jones also addressed the possibility of a change in US policy after the midterm elections. He suggested President Donald Trump could pursue efforts to end the conflict once voting concludes, arguing that the current situation cannot continue indefinitely.

"I assume the president has a plan post-election," Jones said.

Jones elaborated on his expectation that the administration would seek a different path after the election, citing the unsustainable nature of the ongoing situation.

"I assume he has a plan because, clearly, what's going on is untenable. It's not sustainable, I don't think, in the long-run," Jones said.

Beyond energy prices, Jones has warned that US equities could face a difficult environment in 2027 as investors absorb additional share issuance from major technology companies, including anticipated initial public offerings by Anthropic and OpenAI. The prospect of higher oil prices adds another potential source of pressure to that outlook.