Treasury Yields Climb as Midterm Elections and Iran Tensions Weigh

U.S. Treasury yields advanced Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, as investors assessed the opening of midterm election voting, upcoming employment and economic reports, and geopolitical tensions involving Iran. The movement reflected uncertainty surrounding the political outlook, domestic economic conditions, and developments in the Middle East.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed more than 6 basis points to 4.96%, according to CNBC. This benchmark influences borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit card debt.

The 30-year Treasury yield also gained more than 6 basis points, reaching 5.332%. Meanwhile, the two-year Treasury yield increased 4 basis points to 4.623%, reflecting movements in expectations surrounding Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

One basis point represents 0.01 percentage point, or one-hundredth of 1%. Treasury yields and bond prices generally move in opposite directions.

The increases followed a mixed session on Monday. The 10-year yield declined 2 basis points, while the two-year yield advanced by more than 1 basis point.

Political developments remained a major consideration as Americans began voting in the 2026 midterm elections. Investors are monitoring the results for potential changes in congressional control and their implications for financial markets.

Economic indicators also shaped market expectations. September's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed more job openings than economists had expected, according to the report.

Additional employment and business activity figures are scheduled for release throughout the week. The Institute for Supply Management's services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and ADP employment data are due Wednesday.

October's nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment figures are scheduled for Friday. These releases will provide further information about the condition of the U.S. labor market.

Developments involving Iran also influenced commodity markets. Oil prices moved lower as investors became more optimistic about the possibility of resolving the Middle East conflict, following an earlier increase triggered by U.S. strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island.

The military action initially raised concerns about renewed regional escalation. However, subsequent market movements reflected changing expectations surrounding the conflict.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for December delivery declined 0.38% to $96.09 per barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 1.12% to $103.60 per barrel.