Trump Announces Russia Ukraine Energy Ceasefire Plan Amid Strikes

US President Donald Trump announced an energy ceasefire plan between Russia and Ukraine after both countries continued attacks on infrastructure, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he needed details before supporting the arrangement and Russia had not commented. The announcement followed months of strikes on energy facilities. BBC Verify spoke with four experts who assessed the impact of Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure. Samuel Bendett from the Centre for Naval Analyses said the strikes represent an unprecedented situation for Russia.

"The entire situation is essentially without precedent for Russia, since the last time its energy infrastructure was targeted this way was in World War Two," said Samuel Bendett, from the Centre for Naval Analyses.

Bendett described the attacks after Ukraine targeted Russian energy infrastructure, while John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, assessed the fuel impact. "Ukrainian strikes have caused multiple waves of fuel shortages in Russia," said John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Hardie said the shortages have mainly affected areas away from the battlefield and did not indicate a major disruption for Russian forces. "I'm not aware of a large impact on fuel supplies to Russian forces," said John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Sergey Vakulenko, an oil and gas industry specialist at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, described the campaign as part of a broader war strategy. "part of exhaustion and wearing-down warfare, a war strategy aimed at making the population miserable… to make the population desire a quick peace more than anything else and make any sort of peace more acceptable to the population on each side" said Sergey Vakulenko, an oil and gas industry specialist at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. John Kennedy from defence think tank RAND Europe said the campaign was intended to increase the pressure felt by Russian citizens.

"to ensure that the Russian population feels the growing cost of the war," said John Kennedy, from RAND Europe.

Kennedy also linked the impact of the war with wider economic pressure from Western countries. "Coupled with Western economic pressure, Russians now face an objectively worse outlook than at any time since the 1990s," said John Kennedy, from RAND Europe. Trump said the energy ceasefire was effective immediately, but Zelensky indicated the agreement was not fully communicated to Ukraine. Zelensky previously described the diesel arrangement involving Russia as a "gift" to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russian newspapers viewed Trump's energy announcements as a possible way to pressure Ukraine over attacks on oil facilities. Rossiyskaya Gazeta wrote about the potential significance of the statements.

"The agreement and Trump’s subsequent statements can be an important signal," wrote Rossiyskaya Gazeta. Moskovsky Komsomolets linked a proposed diesel supply arrangement to a possible halt in attacks on Russian refineries.

"The plan that [Russia] will supply three million tons [of diesel] a month is only possible once the strikes on Russan oil refineries stop," wrote Moskovsky Komsomolets. Trump also said "it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president" during the dispute, a position that aligned with Moscow's views according to the report.

Zelensky said Trump's announcement surprised him and that Ukraine would support the ceasefire if Russia also accepted it. "news for me" said Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine. Trump announced that "both parties" had agreed to the ceasefire and warned the sides not to violate it.

"Do not break it!" said Donald Trump, US President.

The announcement came as Trump referred to an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, while both countries continued exchanging strikes on infrastructure. Trump had earlier urged Ukraine to "damn well stop" attacks on Russian oil refineries during tensions over the issue. Zelensky said Ukraine was prepared to halt strikes on Russian oil facilities if Russia stopped attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

"ready to stop striking Russian oil refineries if Russia stops striking our energy infrastructure" said Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine.

Russian and Ukrainian officials continued reporting attacks after the announcement, including strikes that killed people in Kharkiv, Ivano Frankivsk and Donetsk, according to statements cited in the report.