Trump Economy Faces Voter Backlash Ahead of 2026 Midterms

WASHINGTON — Rising living costs, weaker consumer confidence and slowing employment growth are putting President Donald Trump's economic record under scrutiny as Republicans prepare for the 2026 midterm elections. Economic indicators published in November 2026 show that several campaign promises remain unfulfilled, raising concerns about household finances and voter confidence.

An Associated Press-NORC poll found that only 25% of US adults approved of Trump's economic management. A Reuters/Ipsos survey also found that 36% of voters considered Democrats better equipped to address living costs, compared with 28% who favored Republicans.

The economic challenges extend beyond inflation. According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment reached 48 in October, remaining close to the record low of 44.8 recorded in May. The October reading was 31.9% below the 70.5 recorded in October 2024.

The Conference Board reported a separate improvement in consumer confidence, which increased from a revised 84.2 in September to 91.7 in October. However, the figure remained below the revised 109.6 recorded in October 2024.

Trump has defended his economic record while maintaining that the country is experiencing strong economic conditions.

"There's no economy like this economy," Trump told reporters in September.

He also acknowledged difficulties in communicating his administration's economic achievements.

"The only thing we don't have is good public relations. We don't seem to be able to get the word across," Trump said.

Inflation presents another challenge. According to US Labor Department figures, consumer prices increased 3.7% year over year in September 2026, compared with 2.4% in September 2024.

Average hourly earnings for private nonfarm workers increased approximately 3% over the year in September 2026, falling behind the pace of consumer price increases. Two years earlier, wage growth averaged 4%, exceeding inflation.

Housing costs increased 6.9% between September 2024 and September 2026, while food prices rose 5.7%, according to Labor Department data.

Trump had repeatedly promised to reduce household expenses during his presidential campaign.

"Prices will come down," Trump told a crowd in Asheville, North Carolina, on August 14, 2024.

He subsequently expanded on that commitment during the same campaign appearance.

"You just watch: They'll come down, and they'll come down fast, not only with insurance, with everything," Trump said.

Energy costs have also complicated the administration's economic agenda. The Iran war, which began earlier in 2026, contributed to higher gasoline prices, while the Russia-Ukraine war and disruptions in the Red Sea further constrained global oil supplies.

Trump previously outlined an ambitious energy policy during an appearance at the Economic Club of New York on September 5, 2024.

"Energy was what caused our problem initially. Energy is going to bring us back. That means we're going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon," Trump said.

However, AAA data placed the national average gasoline price near $3.22 per gallon in September 2024, while the United States subsequently experienced an unprecedented number of days with national gasoline prices above $4 during 2026, according to GasBuddy data. Diesel prices approached $6.33 per gallon in late October, increasing transportation costs for businesses and agricultural operators.

Employment figures provide another measure of the economic slowdown. According to Labor Department data published October 29, employers added approximately 116,000 jobs during Trump's first year back in office. Job creation reached approximately 612,000 during 2026, compared with 1.46 million in 2024 and 2.52 million in 2023.

Trump had promised substantial employment growth during his 2024 campaign.

"We will put more money into your pockets and create millions and millions of new jobs," Trump said at a rally in York, Pennsylvania, on August 19, 2024.

He also outlined his expectations for the scale of the employment expansion.

"We're going to do it like nobody else," Trump said.

Economists have associated weaker hiring with uncertainty surrounding tariffs, corporate spending decisions and the adoption of artificial intelligence. A modest decline in labor force participation has also reduced the number of additional jobs needed to maintain a relatively stable unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in September 2026, compared with 4.1% in September 2024.

Manufacturing employment has also declined slightly despite Trump's commitment to revive domestic industrial production. Labor Department figures show approximately 12.65 million manufacturing workers in September 2026, down from approximately 12.76 million two years earlier.

During his second inaugural address on January 20, 2025, Trump reiterated his manufacturing ambitions.

"America will be a manufacturing nation once again," Trump said.

Economist Paul Krugman, writing in a November 1, 2026, assessment of Trump's economic policies, offered a more qualified evaluation. He argued that the economy was not experiencing a complete collapse, pointing to historically relatively low unemployment and inflation below the levels recorded during the 2021-2022 supply chain disruptions.

However, Krugman highlighted persistent affordability problems, particularly rising healthcare expenses that are not fully reflected in conventional Consumer Price Index measurements. He also identified a widening gap between the administration's optimistic economic messaging and the financial pressures experienced by ordinary households.

Krugman argued that presidential responsibility for economic conditions is often overstated, but maintained that Trump's tariffs and other policy decisions had directly contributed to the current difficulties. His assessment contrasted the administration's claims of a Golden Age with the economic pressures facing American families.

Trump has also promoted direct financial initiatives, including Trump Accounts and proposed payments to Americans, while tariffs and international conflict continue to influence household costs.