Trump Faces Rising Prices and Slower Hiring as US Economy Grows

The US economy continues to expand under President Donald Trump, but rising prices, slower hiring and higher borrowing costs are putting pressure on American households ahead of the November 2026 midterm congressional elections. Data reported by BBC Verify, alongside economic figures published by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, show that growth remains positive even as several indicators of household financial security deteriorate.

According to BBC Verify on October 20, 2026, US gross domestic product (GDP) is growing at an annualized rate of 2.2% and has increased approximately 3.2% since the end of 2024. That performance exceeds the growth recorded by other G7 economies over the same period, despite concerns about the administration's tariffs and disruptions to global energy supplies caused by the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure has provided additional support. US businesses spent $5 billion on data center construction in August 2026, excluding computing equipment, nearly double the monthly rate when Trump returned to office in January 2025, according to BBC Verify.

Trump has repeatedly promoted his administration's economic performance. In remarks cited by BBC Verify, the president said, "We have the hottest country anywhere in the world." His claims about growth, inflation and employment come as economic indicators present a mixed picture.

Inflation remains above its level when Trump began his second term. BBC Verify reported an annual inflation rate of 3.7%, compared with approximately 3% in January 2025 and a peak of around 9% in 2022 under former President Joe Biden. Economists cited by the outlet estimated that inflation would have been lower without Trump's import tariffs.

Energy prices have added to the pressure. According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on October 13, the national average gasoline price rose from $3.11 per gallon on January 20, 2025, to $4.35 in early October 2026, an increase of approximately 40%. Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz associated with the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran have contributed to higher global oil prices.

BBC Verify reported that US diesel prices reached a record $6.52 per gallon in September 2026. Beef and coffee prices have also risen since Trump returned to office, although egg prices have fallen. Higher fuel costs threaten to increase food production and transportation expenses, potentially adding to grocery bills.

Mortgage costs have climbed as inflation concerns and federal borrowing weigh on interest rates. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage increased from 6.96% during Trump's inauguration week to 7.28% for the week ending September 30, 2026. On a $250,000 loan, that difference adds nearly $54 to monthly payments.

The same publication reported that the Federal Reserve, led by Trump-appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh, raised a key interest rate in September to combat higher inflation. The Congressional Budget Office has also identified rising national debt as a factor that can push borrowing costs higher. The national debt has exceeded $40 trillion for the first time, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Employment growth has slowed substantially since the change in administrations. According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the economy added an average of 123,600 jobs per month during Biden's final 18 months in office, compared with 34,100 per month during Trump's first 18 months back in the White House, a decline of approximately 72%.

BBC Verify reported a similar slowdown, with average monthly job gains of 34,000 since Trump's return. Manufacturing employment stood at 12.6 million in September 2026, slightly below its level at the beginning of his second term. However, the unemployment rate remained relatively stable at 4.2%, compared with 4.0% in January 2025.

Both reports identify immigration restrictions and deportations as factors reducing workforce growth. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel also cited federal government staffing cuts, population aging and weaker hiring across several industries. A slower-growing workforce requires fewer new jobs each month to keep unemployment from rising sharply.

Household income figures also reveal a gap between aggregate gains and the financial position of different income groups. According to BBC Verify, median household income adjusted for inflation increased 2.6% in 2025 to $87,460, a record high. However, that increase has not translated into equal benefits for all Americans.

The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy estimated that the combined effects of higher-than-expected price increases and the expiration of additional health insurance subsidies would leave middle-income households approximately $1,700 worse off in 2026 than under a comparison scenario without those changes. The poorest fifth of households would be approximately $750 worse off, while the richest 1% would be an estimated $12,560 better off, primarily because of Trump's tax cuts.

Wage growth has also lost ground relative to the previous administration's performance. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that average hourly pay outpaced price increases by 1.1% during Biden's final 18 months, compared with 0.65% during Trump's first 18 months back in office. The figures indicate that workers' purchasing power continues to improve, but at a slower pace.

Economic growth has likewise moderated. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported annualized GDP growth of 3.1% during Biden's final 18 months, compared with 2.1% during the following 18 months under Trump. The publication cited slower workforce growth and the potential effects of tariffs on investment and employment as contributing factors.

State-level employment data show a mixed pattern. Wisconsin initially recorded a net decline of 2,400 jobs between January 2025 and July 2026, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. A preliminary August jobs report subsequently revised the picture to a net gain of 9,400 jobs during Trump's second term through that period, compared with a gain of 31,200 jobs in Wisconsin during Biden's final 18 months.

Federal borrowing presents another economic risk. BBC Verify reported that increased government borrowing, partly driven by Trump's tax cuts, has supported economic activity while adding to concerns about the national debt. The International Monetary Fund has warned that excessive borrowing and rapidly rising debt increase the risk of a future US financial crisis.