Siena Poll Shows Close Senate Race in South Carolina

Democrat Annie Andrews and Republican Darline Graham are tied at 48% in South Carolina's U.S. Senate race, according to a Siena Research Institute poll published October 28, 2026. The survey also shows Republican leads in Florida's Senate and gubernatorial contests, while Democrats hold double-digit advantages in both Minnesota races.

The poll of likely voters found that the six contests across Florida, Minnesota, and South Carolina have varying margins, with the South Carolina Senate race emerging as the closest contest in the reported results.

In Florida, Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 50% to 44% in the U.S. Senate race. The gubernatorial contest also favors Republicans, with Byron Donalds ahead of Democrat David Jolly 48% to 44%, according to the survey.

Minnesota shows stronger Democratic positions in both statewide races. Democrat Peggy Flanagan leads Republican Michele Tafoya 54% to 40% in the Senate contest, while Democrat Amy Klobuchar holds a 56% to 38% advantage over Republican Lisa Demuth in the gubernatorial race.

South Carolina's Senate contest is tied between Andrews and Graham at 48% each. In the governor's race, Republican Alan Wilson leads Democrat Jermaine Johnson 51% to 44%, according to the Siena Research Institute results.

Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute, highlighted the close South Carolina contest and the different margins in Minnesota and Florida.

"As the battles wage across the map for control of the U.S. Senate, South Carolina now jumps to centerstage. Republican Darline Graham, recently appointed to the senate, is locked in a toss-up race with Democrat Annie Andrews as Graham leads by less than one point," said Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute.

Levy also pointed to the 14-point gap in Minnesota's Senate race and Moody's six-point advantage in Florida. The poll reports Flanagan at 54% and Tafoya at 40%, while Moody stands at 50% compared with Nixon's 44%.

"In Minnesota Democrat Peggy Flanagan enjoys a 14-point lead over Republican Michele Tafoya while in Florida, Republican Ashley Moody holds a 6-point advantage over Democrat Angie Nixon," said Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute.

The institute announced that Levy would be available beginning at 9:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, October 28, to discuss the findings.