CNN Polls Show Democrats Gaining Ground in Four Senate Races

Democrats are positioned to challenge Republican control of the US Senate in four closely watched races, with new CNN polling published October 29, 2026, showing Democratic candidates leading in Michigan and Texas while contests in Maine and Kansas remain competitive. The results reflect growing opportunities for Democrats as President Donald Trump's approval ratings weaken, although the party still faces uncertainty ahead of next Tuesday's midterm elections. Among likely voters, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 49% to 42% in Michigan, while Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 43% in Texas, according to CNN's polling.

In Maine, Democratic challenger Troy Jackson receives 49% support compared with 45% for Republican Sen. Susan Collins. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Sen.

Roger Marshall 49% to 45%. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take control of the chamber, and three of the four seats examined in the polls are currently held by Republicans. CNN's findings indicate that candidate-specific factors and voter dissatisfaction could influence the outcome, although undecided voters could still change the balance in several states.

In Michigan, El-Sayed has strengthened his position since CNN's polling around Labor Day, benefiting from greater unity among Democrats following a contentious August primary and increasingly unfavorable views of Rogers. El-Sayed now has the support of 95% of Democratic likely voters, up from 90% in the previous poll.

According to CNN, 50% of likely voters view Rogers unfavorably, compared with 42% in early September. Three-quarters of El-Sayed's supporters say their vote expresses support for him, while 57% of Rogers' supporters say their vote is primarily against El-Sayed. Texas presents a significant challenge to traditional Republican strength. The state has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in three decades, and Donald Trump carried it in 2024 by the largest margin of his three presidential campaigns.

Talarico has the support of 63% of Latino likely voters and 64% of likely voters of color overall, according to CNN. He also attracts 22% of voters of color who say they supported Trump in 2024. Paxton faces a disadvantage in voter perceptions.

CNN's poll finds that 24% of likely voters view him unfavorably, compared with 2% of Democrats who hold a negative view of Talarico. Most Talarico supporters say their vote reflects support for the Democratic candidate rather than opposition to Paxton.

Despite Talarico's lead, Texas remains more favorable toward Republicans than Democrats overall. Trump's approval rating in the state has turned negative, but the Republican Party remains more popular than the Democratic Party, and the state's gubernatorial race has no clear leader, according to CNN. In Maine, Collins faces a competitive reelection campaign in a state that voted Democratic in the 2024 presidential election.

Although the contest was initially considered one of Democrats' strongest opportunities to gain a Republican-held seat, the latest polling shows Jackson ahead by four percentage points, with neither candidate establishing a clear lead. More than nine in 10 likely voters in Maine say they have settled on their choice, making the state's electorate less likely to shift before Election Day. The contest has increasingly focused on voters' assessments of Collins, according to CNN's analysis.

Kansas presents a different challenge for Democrats because the state strongly favors Republicans and only about one-third of voters view the Democratic Party positively. Nevertheless, Hamilton leads Marshall among likely voters, with voters' unfavorable assessments of the incumbent appearing more important than their views of the Democratic challenger.

Across the four states, at least one in eight likely voters outside Maine say they could still change their minds. In Texas and Kansas, at least six in 10 of those uncommitted voters are Republicans or independents who lean Republican, according to CNN, leaving room for the GOP to regain support as Election Day approaches.