Vance Defends Mike Rogers as Democrats Gain in Senate Forecasts

With control of the US Senate at stake in a closely contested Michigan race, Vice President JD Vance campaigned Tuesday for Republican candidate Mike Rogers in Howell, Michigan, portraying the former congressman as an independent representative of state residents. The rally came as Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted 21 midterm election forecasts toward Democrats, signaling growing challenges for Republicans seeking to retain their congressional majorities.

Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in a tight contest that could help determine control of the Senate. Rogers has occasionally distanced himself from President Donald Trump, giving Vance an opportunity to emphasize his independence from the administration while urging voters to support his candidacy.

During the rally, Vance described Trump as a forceful political figure and argued that Rogers could maintain his own positions while serving Michigan. He presented the Republican candidate as willing to challenge political leaders regardless of party affiliation.

“What Mike has done in this campaign, sometimes he has said things that have been independent of the administration,” Vance said of Rogers.

Vance then contrasted his preferred role for Rogers with loyalty to the White House, arguing that the candidate's primary responsibility should be to Michigan residents rather than the federal administration.

“I don’t want in Mike Rogers a servant for the administration. I want in Mike Rogers a servant for the people of Michigan. That’s his job,” Vance said.

The vice president also challenged El-Sayed's relationship with Democratic leadership, particularly Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer. El-Sayed has previously said he would not support Schumer for majority leader if Democrats win control of the Senate.

“Who is the candidate in this race who is willing to fight for Michigan regardless of political party, and who is bending the knee to the national Democrats?” Vance asked.

He followed that question with an argument that independence from the party leadership was essential for representing Michigan in the Senate.

“If you cannot stand independent of Chuck Schumer, then you cannot stand for Michigan in the United States Senate,” Vance said.

Vance also characterized the Michigan contest as a national political showdown, accusing El-Sayed of challenging American values. His remarks continued a series of Republican attacks questioning the Democratic candidate's allegiances, including criticism centered on his Muslim identity.

“More than any other state, it highlights the clash of competing visions that the far left has decided to run with against commonsense American values,” Vance said during the rally.

The vice president linked the Senate contest to recent riots in France, describing unrest there as a warning about potential political and social upheaval in the United States. The source article provided no evidence supporting his speculation that El-Sayed would back similar unrest in American cities.

“The battle for your Senate seat is a proxy fight over whether America can truly be sovereign if it belongs to men who feel contempt and disdain and hatred for the United States of America,” Vance said.

Separately, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election forecasting report from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, revised its outlook on 21 races toward Democrats with approximately one week remaining before the midterm elections. The changes included three Senate contests in North Carolina, Florida and South Carolina, although the forecast indicated that Democrats still faced significant challenges in the latter two states.

North Carolina's open Senate seat, where former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is running, moved to “Likely Democratic.” Florida shifted to “Likely Republican,” while South Carolina moved to “Leans Republican.”

The forecaster also shifted 16 House races toward Democrats, moving contests in Alabama, Colorado, Kentucky, Missouri, Montana, Pennsylvania and Virginia from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up.” Governor's races in Arizona and Vermont also moved in Democrats' direction.

Advertising expenditures have added to the intensity of the contests. AdImpact reported that spending on midterm election advertising had reached $11.21 billion, setting a new record for the election cycle.

Ohio's Senate race had surpassed $500 million in total advertising spending, including primary campaigns, with more than $40 million projected for the final week. Texas ranked first among midterm races in advertising spending from the beginning of 2025 through Election Day, exceeding $555 million.

AdImpact data also projected nearly $30 million in final-week advertising for each of the competitive Iowa and Michigan contests. Kansas ranked fourth in projected final-week Senate advertising, at $27 million and rising, while both parties continued investing heavily in competitive House races in Florida, North Carolina and Texas.