United Airlines Cuts 2026 Profit Outlook as Fuel Costs Rise

United Airlines lowered its 2026 profit expectations on October 20 as rising fuel expenses threatened to erode earnings, even as passengers continued booking flights and quarterly revenue increased. The Chicago-based carrier projected fourth-quarter adjusted earnings below Wall Street expectations, reflecting higher operating costs despite sustained travel demand.

According to United's earnings report, the airline expects adjusted earnings of 50 cents to $1.50 per share in the fourth quarter, compared with analysts' estimate of $1.76 per share. Even at the upper end of that range, full-year adjusted earnings would reach no more than $7.22 per share, down from the company's July forecast of $9 to $11.

United expects to pay an average of $4.80 per gallon for fuel in the fourth quarter, up from $3.90 in the third quarter. Its fuel bill climbed nearly 62% year over year to $4.84 billion during the three months ended September 30, according to the company.

For the third quarter, United reported adjusted earnings of $2.54 per share, slightly below the $2.57 analysts expected, while revenue reached $17.88 billion against the $17.9 billion consensus estimate compiled by LSEG. Net income increased 8.5% from a year earlier to $1.03 billion, or $3.14 per share, compared with $949 million, or $2.90 per share, in the same period last year.

United Chief Executive Scott Kirby credited employees and the airline's customer-focused strategy for the quarterly performance.

"Our employees met the challenge of our ever-changing environment and our results prove the resilience of focusing on building a brand-loyal airline for customers," said Scott Kirby, United's CEO.

Revenue rose 17.4% year over year from $15.23 billion to $17.88 billion. Domestic passenger unit revenue increased 14.5%, while international passenger unit revenue rose 17.4%, according to the earnings report. United also said passenger counts were up more than 2% from the previous year, indicating that demand had remained resilient despite higher fares.

The pressure on United's outlook comes amid broader challenges across the airline industry. Delta Air Lines previously reported a 62% increase in adjusted fuel costs to $4.14 billion for its third quarter and reduced its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to $5.10 to $5.60 per share from its earlier range of $6.50 to $7.50.

United is also continuing investments intended to improve the passenger experience. According to a report published by Yahoo Finance on October 20, the airline had installed SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet service on more than 635 of its 1,579 mainline and regional aircraft. The service was available on nearly half of its daily departures, with installations progressing at approximately 20 aircraft per week. United expects the rollout to be completed by the end of 2027.

The airline has also introduced a digital tracker that allows passengers to check Starlink connectivity on flights departing within three days. Separately, United expanded meal preordering to flights longer than 900 miles, adding approximately 420 eligible daily flights and making the service available to as many as 65,000 additional passengers each day.