Trump Approval Falls as Democrats Gain Midterm Advantage

President Donald Trump's declining approval ratings and widespread concern about the cost of living are putting Republicans at risk ahead of the November 3, 2026, US midterm elections. Polls published by Reuters/Ipsos and NBC News show Democrats leading in congressional preferences as voters express growing dissatisfaction with the administration's economic performance and policies.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey published on October 19 found that just 31% of respondents approved of Trump's performance, down from 32% two weeks earlier. In a hypothetical congressional vote, 47% favored Democrats and 35% Republicans, giving Democrats a 12-point advantage, the widest of the current election cycle, according to the poll.

A separate NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey found Trump's approval rating at 34%, while 66% disapproved. Among registered voters, Democrats led Republicans 55% to 45% on which party should control Congress, putting the narrow Republican majorities in both chambers under pressure.

The NBC survey, conducted online among 19,135 adults from September 28 through October 12, had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. It also found that 71% of respondents believed the country was on the wrong track, the highest share recorded during Trump's second term in that poll.

Republicans currently hold 218 seats to Democrats' 214 in the House of Representatives, while the Senate is divided 53-47 in favor of Republicans. All 435 House seats and 33 of the Senate's 100 seats are being contested in the midterm elections.

Economic anxiety is a central factor in the unfavorable polling. According to NBC News, the economy ranked as the most important issue for 31% of respondents, while 44% said their financial situation had worsened over the previous year. Another 38% said it was unchanged, and 18% reported being better off.

Year-over-year inflation reached 3.7% in the previous month, according to the NBC report. The survey found that 67% considered gasoline prices a serious or somewhat serious problem, while many respondents said they had changed grocery purchases or reduced spending to cover essential expenses.

Trump received approval from just 27% of respondents for his handling of the cost of living and 29% for his management of the war with Iran, the NBC poll found. His approval on border security and immigration was higher at 43%.

The survey also showed broader dissatisfaction with both major parties. Among adults, 43% viewed the Democratic Party favorably and 57% unfavorably, while 37% viewed the Republican Party favorably and 63% unfavorably. In addition, 58% said Trump's policies were harming the country, compared with 28% who said they were helping it.

Concerns about government integrity added to the political challenges. According to NBC News, 52% of respondents considered Trump's administration more corrupt than previous administrations, while 56% said corruption was equally serious in both major parties.

Historical election data suggest that declining presidential approval can be damaging to the party controlling the White House. Research cited by Al Jazeera, drawing on data from the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara, found that the governing party lost House seats in 18 of the 20 midterm elections held since 1946.

The scale of those losses has varied with presidential popularity. In 1994, when President Bill Clinton's approval stood at 46% during his first midterm election, Democrats lost 52 congressional seats. In 1998, with Clinton's approval at 66%, Democrats lost five seats instead.

According to the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, voters who oppose the president's party often have greater motivation to participate in midterm elections. However, national preference polls do not establish how individual states and districts will vote, leaving uncertainty over the final distribution of seats.

NBC News' state-level projections identified North Carolina and Maine as potential Senate gains for Democrats, while Alaska, Iowa and Texas remained competitive. In House races, the network identified 15 Republican-held districts as possible Democratic gains and classified four Republican-held districts and three Democratic-held districts as toss-ups.

If Democrats captured all those closely contested House districts without losing any seats they currently hold, they could gain 22 seats in the House and five in the Senate, according to the projections cited by Al Jazeera. The outcome will also depend on voter turnout and whether Republican candidates can retain support among Trump loyalists while appealing to voters dissatisfied with his administration.