Talarico Leads Paxton as Texas Senate Race Tightens

Texas is emerging as a major battleground in the November 3, 2026, US Senate election, as Democratic state Rep. James Talarico challenges Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a contest that could test the state's longstanding Republican alignment. Polls published in early October show Talarico holding a narrow lead, while surveys indicate that Paxton's unfavorable public image could complicate Republican efforts to retain the seat.

A RealClearPolitics polling average cited by Newsweek placed Talarico at 48.4% and Paxton at 45.3%, giving the Democrat a 3.1-point advantage across surveys conducted from September 12 to October 5. A YouGov poll conducted from September 28 to October 5 among 3,625 likely voters found Talarico leading 50% to 44%, with a three-point margin of error.

A separate Fox News poll released in October found Talarico with a net positive personal rating of eight points, as 52% of likely Texas voters viewed him favorably and 44% unfavorably. Paxton recorded 40% favorable and 58% unfavorable ratings, leaving him 18 points underwater. The same survey placed Talarico ahead 51% to 49% in the head-to-head contest, a margin within the poll's sampling error.

Polling averages compiled by FiftyPlusOne for an October 8 analysis also highlighted Paxton's vulnerability. Across 12 polls, 51.7% of Texans viewed him unfavorably, while 37.5% viewed him favorably, producing a net favorability rating of minus 14 points. Talarico recorded a 46.6% favorable rating and a 40% unfavorable rating, giving him a net advantage of 6.5 points.

Paxton's political record includes a major ethics controversy that has followed him into the Senate campaign. The Texas House of Representatives impeached him in May 2023 over allegations including bribery, abuse of office and obstruction. The Texas Senate acquitted him in September 2023, allowing him to remain attorney general.

President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton during the Republican primary, which also featured incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. Commentators cited by Fox News argued that Cornyn might have presented Republicans with a stronger general-election candidate. Paxton's unfavorable ratings have become a central concern as Democrats attempt to compete in a state Trump carried by 13.7 percentage points in 2024, according to Baptist News.

The broader political environment may also be affecting Republican candidates elsewhere. FiftyPlusOne's analysis found that Republican Senate nominees in states Trump won by double digits in 2024 trailed their Democratic opponents on favorability by an average of 13 points. In Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska, Democratic candidates averaged a net favorability rating of plus six, compared with minus seven for Republicans.

Texas nevertheless presents a substantial turnout challenge for Democrats. No Democratic candidate has won a statewide election there since 1994, and the state has repeatedly remained Republican despite competitive races. Republican Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Beto O'Rourke by 2.57 percentage points in the 2018 Senate election, according to the official results cited by Newsweek.

Joshua M. Blank, director of research for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, identified Republican voter enthusiasm as a key factor in the current contest.

"Most of the elements are falling into place for Democrats, but without an actual victory under their belt, it's hard to imagine how it actually happens," Blank told Newsweek.

Blank said the election's outcome would depend in part on whether Republican voters remain motivated to participate. Talarico must also turn his polling support into votes, particularly among younger voters and the state's increasingly diverse electorate.

Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, said candidate-specific factors could be disrupting the state's usual partisan patterns.

"Texas remains structurally Republican, so a Senate contest polling around even, or with the Democrat slightly ahead, suggests that candidate-specific factors may be overriding some normal partisan voting," Rottinghaus told Newsweek.

Rottinghaus added that turnout and cross-party voting would help determine whether Talarico's advantage translates into an election victory. He also cautioned against treating the 2018 Senate race as a direct prediction for 2026, noting that the political environment and candidates differ.

In 2018, Cruz received 4,260,553 votes, or 50.89%, while O'Rourke received 4,045,632 votes, or 48.33%. Cruz won by 214,921 votes, demonstrating how closely contested a statewide Texas race can become even when Republicans retain the seat.

The 2026 contest also coincides with a closely watched gubernatorial race. Baptist News reported that Democrat Gina Hinojosa has drawn competitive polling against Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, although the available surveys vary between a narrow Abbott lead and a tie.

Paxton acknowledged campaign difficulties at a private fundraiser last month, according to Politico.

"I don't have the ability to change anything," Paxton told donors, adding that the national Republican Party and the president in Washington were effectively running his campaign.

Despite Talarico's polling advantage, the available results do not establish a likely winner. The Democrat's lead remains narrow enough to be reversed by polling error or differences in turnout, while Texas's recent statewide election history continues to favor Republicans ahead of the November 3 vote.