Talarico Leads Paxton in Texas Senate Polls as Race Tightens

Democratic state legislator James Talarico holds a lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in several polls of the Texas Senate race, according to surveys published in October 2026. The findings suggest a competitive contest ahead of November's midterm elections, although differences among polling results and Talarico's recent illness complicate assessments of the race.

A Trafalgar poll of 1,086 likely Texas voters, conducted from October 6 to 8, gave Talarico 47.1 percent support, compared with 43.6 percent for Paxton. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown received 1.8 percent, while 7.6 percent remained undecided. The survey's margin of error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

A separate New York Times/Siena poll published by ABC13 on October 6 showed Talarico leading Paxton by 6 percentage points. That survey also placed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa 4 points ahead of Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, results that political experts said differed from the broader polling picture.

Other Senate surveys have also indicated a close contest. A New York Times/Siena poll conducted from September 21 to 30 gave Talarico 51 percent support and Paxton 45 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. A YouGov survey conducted from September 28 to October 5 showed Talarico ahead 50 percent to 44 percent among 3,625 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

However, a University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion poll found both candidates tied at 45 percent. That survey included 850 likely voters, was conducted from September 18 to 28, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Rice University political science professor Mark Jones cautioned against treating individual surveys as definitive, noting that the gubernatorial results also appeared unusual compared with other polling.

"Has Talarico 6 points up and it had Gina Hinojosa leading Greg Abbott, which is a little bit unusual; we've seen in a series of polls that she's been breaking even," Jones said.

University of Houston political science lecturer Nancy Sims likewise said the latest findings did not fully match the broader polling landscape.

"James Talarico well ahead of Ken Paxton and Gina Hinojosa well ahead of Greg Abbott, that's not what most polls are saying," Sims said.

Sims emphasized the importance of examining independent surveys, including their demographic breakdowns and margins of error, rather than relying on a single result. She also pointed to campaign developments that could influence voter attitudes.

"I always say take polls as a point of view, at that point in time," Sims said.

Paxton released new campaign advertisements during the week of the ABC13 report, creating another potential factor in the race. Sims said subsequent polling would be needed to determine whether such efforts affected voter preferences.

Jones recommended comparing multiple independent surveys to identify a more reliable overall picture of the contest.

"You have access to multiple high-priority polls from independent groups, take the average of those polls, don't look at any one poll in isolation, one poll is much more likely to be off than the group is as a whole," Jones said.

Talarico's campaign activity also drew attention after influenza kept him away from public campaigning for nearly two weeks. He disclosed his diagnosis on September 30 and said during a virtual appearance at a U.S. Hispanic Business Council event that he had a fever and wanted to avoid spreading the illness.

He returned to a public event at the Austin City Limits Music Festival on Friday, October 9, according to Newsweek. Campaign spokesman JT Ennis addressed speculation about Talarico's absence in a post on X.

"Hate to disappoint the conspiracy theorists, but James is still alive and meeting with voters at ACL today," Ennis wrote.

Talarico told The New York Times at the festival that he had been recovering at home. President Donald Trump had mocked his absence during a rally in San Antonio earlier in the week, while Talarico later challenged Paxton to debate in a social media post.

The Senate contest carries national significance because Democrats need to gain Republican-held seats to secure a chamber majority. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 advantage, and Democrats need to win four GOP-held seats to obtain a majority under the current alignment, with Vice President JD Vance serving as the tiebreaker in an evenly divided Senate.

Texas has remained a Republican-leaning state, but Democratic candidates have narrowed the party's margins in recent decades. Republicans won the state by 21 points in 2000 and by about 6 points in 2020, according to the Newsweek report. Republicans have increased their investment in the Senate contest, while Trump has campaigned in Texas to support candidates from his party.