Syrskyi Says Ukraine War Outcome Depends on Military Results

The prospects for ending Russia's war against Ukraine depend on battlefield developments, military resources and continued international support, former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said in a BBC interview published by Liga.net on October 13, 2026. Syrskyi said political negotiations ultimately end wars, but their terms are shaped by military outcomes.

He said it remains difficult to determine conclusively whether Ukraine is winning or losing on the battlefield. According to Syrskyi, negotiations could begin under different circumstances, including when both sides are weakening or when neither side has a decisive military advantage.

Syrskyi estimated that Russia is losing approximately 1,500 soldiers each day. He also stressed that the prospects for ending the conflict depend on several factors beyond the immediate situation along the front line.

Discussing possible conditions for negotiations, Syrskyi said talks could occur when both armies are suffering losses and the overall frontline situation is deteriorating as troops retreat. Alternatively, negotiations could proceed on more balanced terms if neither side holds a significant advantage while the opposing force sustains heavy casualties.

"Negotiations can take place when both sides are losing and the overall situation on the front lines is deteriorating as the army retreats. Or they can take place on equal terms, when the enemy has no significant advantages but is suffering enormous losses," said Syrskyi, former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

He identified the resilience of Ukrainians and assistance from international partners and allies as additional factors influencing the war's eventual outcome. The former commander said Ukraine has faced an opponent with greater capabilities across multiple areas for nearly five years.

"And, of course, the resilience not only of our people, but also the support from our partners and allies," said Syrskyi.

He described Ukraine's continued resistance as significant in the context of the broader security threat posed by Russia. Syrskyi said the country's ability to withstand the offensive mattered beyond Ukraine itself, pointing to the possibility that Russian aggression could extend toward Europe.

"The very fact that we are holding back this onslaught—which, as you know, could turn around and head toward Europe—is already a feat for our country and a feat for the entire Ukrainian people, so that is how I view it," said Syrskyi.

Syrskyi also argued that the conflict involves more than the direct confrontation between armed forces. He highlighted technology, industrial capacity and national financial systems as important elements shaping a country's ability to sustain a prolonged war.

He further emphasized the role of international coalitions, noting that the ability of each country to obtain sufficient weapons depends partly on the resources and commitments of its partners.

"This is a competition among coalitions, because every country has its own partners and allies who may or may not be able to provide it with the necessary amount of weapons," Syrskyi added.

Ukraine's military leadership changed in July 2026. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced Syrskyi's resignation on July 21, and Mykhailo Drapaty was appointed the new Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. When leaving the post, Syrskyi said the Ukrainian military was not only holding its positions but was also conducting offensive operations.