Stock Bull Market Enters Fifth Year With Gains Near Average

The current stock market bull cycle is approaching its fifth year as investors enter the 11th such period since the 1950s, with the advance supported by corporate earnings and artificial intelligence demand, according to analysis from Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner.

According to Lerner's analysis, the market has gained 119% during the current bull run, placing it near the middle of historical performances since the 1950s. The average advance across those cycles was 184%, while previous gains reached 401% in 2009-2020 and 582% in 1987-2000.

The current cycle is on track to become the seventh bull market since the 1950s to complete at least four full years on Oct. 12. Lerner found that six of the previous 10 bull markets lasted longer than four years.

"The weight of the evidence remains supportive as the bull market enters its fifth year. Continued economic growth, resilient corporate profits, and a meaningful reset in valuations provide a solid foundation for maintaining a constructive stance. At the same time, history suggests investors should not get caught off guard by volatility as the cycle matures." wrote Keith Lerner, Truist co-chief investment officer.

Lerner's analysis showed that bull markets reaching their fifth year produced an average return of 12% and a median return of 15% during that period. The data also noted that mature cycles can experience volatility.

The S&P 500's recent performance has been linked to earnings growth, according to FactSet data cited in the analysis. Companies in the index were expected to deliver 29.5% year-over-year earnings growth for the recently completed third quarter.

FactSet data showed that result would mark the third consecutive quarter with earnings growth above 25% and the eighth straight quarter with double-digit percentage earnings growth. Analysts also projected 27.6% growth for the fourth quarter and 32.4% growth for all of 2026.

Technology companies have contributed heavily to rising earnings expectations, according to Barclays strategist Venu Krishna. About 40% of year-to-date revisions to S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2026 came from semiconductor and hardware industries, while those sectors accounted for 75% of revisions for 2027 estimates.