SpaceX Options Traders Price In 6 Percent Earnings Move

Options market activity points to expectations of further gains in SpaceX shares as investors prepare for the company's second earnings report. Ahead of the results scheduled for release after the market closes Tuesday, October 20, 2026, market-makers were pricing in an approximately 6% stock move, according to Cboe LiveVol data.

The expected movement is substantially smaller than the reaction to SpaceX's inaugural earnings report in August. The stock fell 13% after that announcement, subsequently rallied 60% over the following two months, and then reversed course, declining as much as 19% over the past two weeks, according to CNBC's report.

Options trading has shown a bullish tilt despite a roughly balanced number of outstanding call and put contracts. Barchart data showed that daily trading activity favored calls during the week leading up to the earnings announcement.

On Monday, traders exchanged 1.1 million options contracts, approximately 20% above the 30-day average. Cboe LiveVol data showed that 665,000 of those contracts were calls, with more calls purchased than sold.

The same data indicated that traders bought more calls than puts and sold more puts than they purchased. These transactions reflected the direction of options activity heading into the company's second earnings release, although they do not guarantee how the stock will perform afterward.

SpaceX also faces potential selling pressure from upcoming share lockup expirations. A scheduled release two days after the earnings announcement and another on October 26 will make more than 1.6 billion shares eligible for sale, according to CNBC.

Previous share releases have not produced a discernible effect on the stock price. CNBC reported that releases on September 9, September 10, and September 24 passed without an obvious impact on shares.

SpaceX's implied volatility has also declined considerably compared with the period preceding its previous quarterly earnings report. ThinkOrSwim data showed implied volatility at 62 on Monday, compared with a level above 110 before the company released its second-quarter results.

The lower implied volatility is consistent with the options market's smaller expected post-earnings move. The current estimate of approximately 6% is less than half the 13% decline recorded following the August report.