Solar Storm Forecast Brings Auroras and Moderate Geomagnetic Activity

A coronal mass ejection linked to a solar flare is expected to trigger G1 to G2 geomagnetic storms on October 9, 2026, as it reaches Earth and may produce auroras across northern US regions, according to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.

SWPC's three-day forecast issued at 00:30 UTC on October 9 predicted a peak planetary Kp index of 6, corresponding to a G2 moderate geomagnetic storm during the strongest activity period.

The forecast identified the main storm window from 18:00 to 21:00 UTC on October 9, with G2 conditions possible through 00:00 UTC on October 10. SWPC said effects could include power system voltage alarms, satellite corrections, and high-frequency radio disruptions.

NOAA explained the phenomenon in its alert system with a definition of geomagnetic storms.

"A major disturbance of Earth's magnetosphere that occurs when there is a very efficient exchange of energy from the solar wind into the space environment surrounding Earth." said NOAA.

The CME was associated with an M1.4 solar flare recorded on October 6. SWPC said unsettled to active conditions could continue after the CME influence, with another G1 minor storm interval possible from 03:00 to 06:00 UTC on October 11.

SWPC also described the expected technological effects as limited and manageable during the event.

"Mainly manageable." said SWPC.

The agency said aurora visibility could extend farther south than usual because of stronger geomagnetic activity.

"Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state." said SWPC.

A separate solar eruption occurred on October 8 from Region 4549, which produced an M6.7 flare and radio emissions. SWPC was still analyzing the associated CME, while the region remained a possible source of additional M-class flares through October 11.

SWPC reported the October 8 flare had Type II and Type IV radio emissions and an extreme ultraviolet wave observed by GOES Solar Ultraviolet Imager imagery. The agency estimated a 55% daily chance of R1 to R2 radio blackouts.