Saudi Arabia Leads Regional Talks With Iran as War Fears Rise

Diplomatic efforts to prevent another escalation of the Middle East conflict brought senior Saudi Arabian, Pakistani and Turkish officials to Tehran on October 26, as concerns mounted over possible renewed US and Israeli military action against Iran. The discussions with Iranian leaders aim to reduce regional tensions, protect strategic interests and limit further disruptions to energy supplies after months of conflict.

Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and National Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei, according to Saudi and Iranian officials. Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin also attended, marking the first high-level contact between Saudi Arabia and Iran since Iran-backed Houthi forces intensified attacks on Saudi targets the previous month.

Saudi Foreign Ministry official Rayed Krimly said the talks would address "de-escalation" among parties involved in the "ongoing crisis." Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei described the discussions as a possible step toward "establishing a regional security framework."

Baghaei said, "We have consistently emphasized that regional security can only be ensured by relying on the will and security considerations of the countries of the region."

The meeting comes amid speculation that US President Donald Trump could authorize further strikes against Iran after the November midterm elections. Two US officials told CNN that American forces in the region were sufficient to conduct potential operations, which could extend beyond limited attacks on Iranian military assets.

Iran and Saudi Arabia have been regional rivals for decades, with their confrontation intensifying after the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran in February. Iranian attacks subsequently targeted US-allied countries, including Saudi Arabia, while Iran-aligned groups in Iraq and Yemen struck Saudi oil facilities and civilian infrastructure.

Recent Houthi attacks have added pressure to Saudi Arabia's security and energy infrastructure. The group said it targeted Riyadh's main airport and oil facilities on Saturday, while Saudi authorities reported intercepting additional missiles and drones on Sunday. The kingdom partially resumed operations at its principal airport despite damage from earlier attacks.

Iran analyst Hamidreza Azizi of the International Crisis Group said the seniority of the visiting officials and the timing of the meeting made it particularly significant.

"The significance of the meeting lies primarily in its timing and the officials involved," Azizi told CNN.

He added, "It comes at a moment when the risk of another round of war between Iran and the United States is growing, and the three members of the Mecca Pact have direct security interests at stake."

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey are members of the newly formed Mecca Alliance, a defense partnership under which an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. The arrangement combines Saudi financial resources, Turkey's military capabilities and Pakistan's nuclear-armed military, while Pakistan has also served as an intermediary between Washington and Tehran during the conflict.

The possibility of a broader US campaign has raised concerns among neighboring countries about further Iranian retaliation. Since the conflict began, Tehran has reduced the intensity of some missile and drone attacks while seeking to increase economic pressure by threatening the maritime route used to transport roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas each day.

Earlier US military operations had focused on striking Iranian radars, launchers and other assets that could be rebuilt relatively quickly. CNN reported that any new campaign could exceed those limited objectives. Iran has meanwhile urged neighboring countries to remove US military bases and reduce their dependence on Washington for defense.

Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran branch of Israeli military intelligence, described the alliance as part of a "broader effort" to establish a more "independent regional security architecture."

Citrinowicz wrote, "The decision to engage directly with Tehran is equally significant."

He added, "It reflects not only recognition of the Iranian regime but also an understanding that Iran remains a central regional player whose influence cannot simply be ignored."

Former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has also viewed the diplomatic initiative as an opportunity to develop a wider regional security arrangement less dependent on the United States. However, Azizi cautioned that the meeting did not necessarily indicate an imminent diplomatic breakthrough.

Azizi said, "Tehran wants credible guarantees that any agreement would prevent another military attack, and it is difficult to see how Saudi Arabia, Turkey or Pakistan could provide such guarantees or exert sufficient influence over Trump to secure them."

He added, "Unless these countries bring something new to the table that could change the calculations in either Tehran or Washington, the meeting is unlikely to produce a substantive breakthrough."

Azizi further characterized the discussions as "a last-minute attempt to prevent the resumption of war" rather than the start of a new diplomatic process.

Financial markets also reflected the uncertainty surrounding the conflict. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 1% to $102.17 a barrel, while Brent crude declined 0.2% to $116.49 on Monday, according to CNBC. The declines followed a sharp rally on Friday as renewed Houthi attacks heightened concerns about interruptions to global oil supplies.

Michael Alfaro, chief investment officer at Gallo Partners, estimated that geopolitical uncertainty had added approximately $20 a barrel to oil prices.

"I think the theme we're in right now is that uncertainty is off the charts, and if you think about the risk premium that's baked into oil right now, it's about $20 a barrel," Alfaro told CNBC.

He warned that a major attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline or additional refining facilities could push prices higher, although sustained increases could eventually reduce consumption. Alfaro said demand destruction would intensify if Brent crude rose above $120 a barrel.

Alfaro also identified refining capacity as a longer-term concern for energy markets.

"The real challenge is refining capacity," he said, warning that disruptions could become a structural problem extending into 2027 and beyond.

US energy officials have authorized the release of up to 400,000 barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to address a supply disruption at a Louisiana refinery. The reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1982, according to CNBC, while uncertainty over the conflict has limited expectations for substantial new investment by US oil producers.

Alfaro said, "We're not really seeing major capex additions to bring new rigs on or bring new production online."

Saudi Arabia is also planning to begin storing crude oil in Singapore in the second half of 2027, according to energy ministers from both countries, as it seeks to strengthen the resilience of its Asian supply chain.

Beyond energy markets, the talks reflect growing interest among regional governments in security arrangements that reduce dependence on external powers. The extent to which Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey can secure assurances from Tehran or influence Washington's military calculations remains uncertain.