OPEC Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Growth Forecast Amid Supply Risks

OPEC reduced its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast on October 12 to 400,000 barrels per day as the organization assessed weaker consumption and ongoing supply risks. The revision was announced by OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais amid elevated crude prices and shipping disruptions.

According to moomoo, OPEC cut its demand growth projection from 1.4 million barrels per day at the start of the year to 400,000 barrels per day, a reduction of 1 million barrels per day. The organization said some expected demand has been delayed until 2027.

OPEC attributed the lower outlook to market conditions that developed throughout the year, including high prices that affected consumption in industrial oil use and some transportation fuels. The group also cited shipping route disruptions that widened the gap between reported demand and physical consumption.

Despite weaker demand expectations, Brent crude remained above 105 dollars per barrel and West Texas Intermediate stayed above 92 dollars per barrel, according to moomoo. Supply concerns in the Middle East continued to influence market conditions.

According to moomoo, attacks involving tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions affecting alternative shipping routes and bypass pipelines limited export flows. The article reported that constrained physical supply and limited inventory buffers helped maintain higher price levels.

OPEC said its 2027 demand growth outlook was raised because the organization expects deferred consumption to return once supply conditions improve. The group assessed the current weakness as linked to temporary external pressures rather than a lasting decline in demand.

Market indicators cited by moomoo showed Brent prices recently trading around 106 dollars, above the Bollinger Bands middle level of 102.28. The report also noted a positive but limited MACD histogram value of 0.15.