Oil Prices Surge as Hormuz Attacks and Hurricane Isaias Threaten Supply

Global oil prices climbed sharply Thursday, October 8, 2026, as escalating attacks on commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Hurricane Isaias threatening offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico raised concerns about disruptions to crude supplies. Brent crude rose above $105 a barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate also advanced as traders assessed security risks and potential production losses.

Brent crude futures gained 4% to settle at $104.28 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures rose 3.6% to $91.49, according to CNBC. Earlier in the session, Brent had climbed more than 5% before retreating to trade 4.8% higher at $105 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate reached $92.48, according to CNN.

Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy supplies, has fallen amid heightened security threats. Preliminary data from commodities analytics firm Kpler showed that only seven tankers crossed the strait Tuesday, less than half the seven-day average and the lowest daily total since July 23.

Kpler reported that 10 tankers were attacked in the strait between September 28 and October 4, surpassing the previous weekly record of six. CNBC separately reported nine tanker attacks in and around Hormuz over the preceding week. The figures cover different reported scopes and reflect the continuing danger to commercial shipping.

Some vessels switch off their identification systems to avoid detection, meaning recorded crossings can be revised upward. Kpler data also showed that 9.5 million barrels of oil per day passed through Hormuz during the week ended Tuesday, approximately 30% below normal levels before the Iran war. Including pipeline routes that bypass the strait, Middle Eastern crude flows reached 16.4 million barrels per day, nearly matching prewar levels.

A tanker reported being struck by multiple projectiles Wednesday, causing casualties, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency. Meanwhile, Houthi militants in Yemen fired missiles toward airports in Riyadh and Abha on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to CNBC, which reported three deaths and 36 injuries based on Saudi-owned media outlet Al Arabiya. Saudi forces intercepted another volley of ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh and Khamis Mushait on Thursday, a Saudi military spokesperson said.

Oil prices retreated from their session highs after President Donald Trump said the United States would not attack Iran before the November midterm elections. The market had earlier reacted to an NBC News report, citing unnamed sources, that Trump and his national security team were considering renewed strikes in the coming weeks.

Analysts at ING described the market as caught between improving regional supply and persistent security threats.

"There is a clear tug-of-war at the moment between improving supply from the region and lingering threats to supply," commodities strategists at ING wrote in a note Wednesday.

The strategists said sustained price declines would depend on resolving the threats affecting energy shipments.

"The only way to see prices trade sustainably lower is for lingering risks to be addressed," the ING strategists added.

Ryan McKay, director of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said shipping risks and operating costs continued to complicate the recovery in oil flows. His assessment highlighted the expense of naval escorts, logistical obstacles and the possibility of further attacks on vessels.

"While flows from the region have largely normalized, the need for US navy escorts, increased costs and logistical frictions and constant risk of being attacked call into question the longer-term feasibility of the flows," McKay said in a Thursday note.

He said those conditions were likely to keep additional risk reflected in crude prices.

"This ultimately warrants a sticky risk premium to remain in pricing," McKay said.

Hurricane Isaias has added another threat as it approaches the US Gulf Coast, home to major oil production and refining infrastructure. Oil companies shut in approximately 500,000 barrels per day, or 25% of offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico, according to CNBC. Shell and Chevron also said they would reduce regional production and evacuate nonessential personnel.

Rising crude prices have also affected other energy markets. European natural gas prices approached their mid-September highs Thursday before retreating, while ICE Gasoil Futures, a benchmark for European diesel, rose 6% Wednesday, according to CNN. Higher energy costs have intensified inflation concerns and contributed to renewed selling in European bonds as the region remains dependent on imported energy.

The International Energy Agency said its member governments would not expand the 400 million barrels of oil they agreed to release in March. Approximately 325 million barrels had been released, leaving about 100 million more barrels to reach the market, according to an IEA statement Wednesday. The remaining supply includes diesel that G7 countries agreed to release the previous week.

"IEA Member governments still have significant levels of publicly held emergency oil stocks – equivalent to around 1.1 billion barrels, including over 200 million barrels of diesel," the International Energy Agency said.

The agency also indicated that additional emergency supplies remained available if market conditions required further intervention.

"The IEA stands ready to release more of these stocks to the market if and when required," the agency said.

Despite the international surge in energy prices, average US retail diesel prices edged down Thursday to $6.28 a gallon, while regular gasoline remained unchanged at $4.36 a gallon, according to American Automobile Association data cited by CNN.