October Storm Threatens Southern California With 2 Inches of Rain

Southern California faces a renewed threat of heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and hazardous coastal conditions as an October storm approaches the region Wednesday and Thursday, October 21-22, 2026. The National Weather Service forecasts up to 2 inches of rain in some locations, with locally heavier downpours potentially increasing the risk of flooding.

The system was positioned off the Oregon coast Monday and is expected to travel south along the California coastline before moving inland somewhere between central and Southern California on Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.

Forecasters expect at least half an inch of rain across the region over two days, with most locations receiving about an inch. Areas experiencing stronger showers or thunderstorms could collect as much as 2 inches or more, while rainfall totals will vary depending on the storm's path and intensity.

The weather service cautioned that the system's separation from the stronger jet stream to the north makes its timing and rainfall distribution difficult to predict. A flood watch may become necessary if rainfall rates reach the forecast maximum.

The National Weather Service described the approaching system as a notable storm for the month of October.

"A pretty potent storm for October appears to be headed towards southern California Wednesday and Thursday," according to the NWS.

Forecasters also warned that a southward track could increase the likelihood of scattered thunderstorms and locally intense rainfall, particularly overnight Wednesday into Thursday. The resulting differences in rainfall intensity could produce substantial variations in accumulated precipitation across nearby communities.

"In addition, assuming the storm drops as far south as many of the (computer models) are now indicating, there is an increasing risk for scattered convective activity and locally heavy rainfall, especially Wednesday night into Thursday, which means likely a large variance in rainfall rates and totals," according to the NWS.

Rain could begin as early as Tuesday night. The greatest threat of heavier showers and thunderstorms is expected Wednesday night into Thursday, and rainfall rates could reach three-quarters of an inch per hour, according to the weather service.

"Peak rain rates up to .75''/hr are certainly possible and a flood watch may be needed," according to the NWS.

The latest forecast signals greater concern about potentially hazardous rainfall than earlier projections, which indicated that heavy precipitation would be unlikely outside thunderstorms.

Beyond the rain threat, the storm is expected to bring cooler conditions following several days of unusually high temperatures and strong Santa Ana winds. The National Weather Service expected temperatures to fall below seasonal averages Tuesday for the first time in several days.

Los Angeles County is forecast to experience cloudy skies and cooler weather Wednesday and Thursday, with daytime highs generally ranging from the mid-60s to the lower 70s. Orange County could also see periods of rain and possible thunderstorms as the system crosses Southern California.

The storm is not expected to produce snow at elevations below 8,000 feet, according to the weather service.

Coastal waters could face additional hazards Wednesday and Thursday, including thunderstorms, lightning, gusty and erratic winds, small hail and choppy seas. Isolated waterspouts are also possible offshore.

A beach hazards statement remains in effect through late Thursday night for portions of the Los Angeles County coastline. The National Weather Service warned of elevated surf, dangerous rip currents, minor beach erosion and possible tidal overflow in low-lying areas.

Warmer, drier weather is expected to return Friday and continue into the following week. Offshore winds could redevelop over the weekend, although the anticipated Santa Ana event is expected to be considerably weaker than the one that brought strong winds and unusually hot weather to the region the previous week.

Temperatures could reach the 80s in some areas over the weekend, according to the National Weather Service.