National Party Support Falls to 24.8 Percent Before New Zealand Election

New Zealand's governing National Party faces mounting pressure ahead of the November 7 general election after its support fell to 24.8 percent in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, published October 29. The result places the party 5.8 percentage points behind the opposition Labour Party and raises questions about Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's prospects of securing another term.

According to RNZ, National's support dropped from 25.9 percent in the previous poll three weeks earlier, falling below its 25.6 percent result in the 2020 election. Labour recorded 30.6 percent, while National's coalition partners ACT and New Zealand First received 10.1 percent and 9.9 percent, respectively.

The poll highlights the challenges facing National as smaller parties gain support and the election approaches. Combined support for Labour and National, sometimes described as the purple vote, has declined to 55.4 percent, reflecting a broader shift toward smaller political parties, according to RNZ.

National's declining support has increased concerns among lawmakers who depend on the party vote to secure parliamentary seats. Under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional representation system, voters choose both a constituency candidate and a political party, with party votes helping determine the proportional allocation of parliamentary seats.

Strategic voting could further complicate National's position. The approach encourages centre-right voters to support National candidates in constituencies while directing their party votes toward ACT or New Zealand First, potentially allowing National to win more electorate seats than its proportional party vote would otherwise provide.

ACT's support increased by 1.1 percentage points as National's fell by the same amount. RNZ reported that the shift has raised concerns among National list MPs and lawmakers in marginal constituencies about their chances of returning to Parliament.

Paul Goldsmith has appealed directly to voters in Epsom, asking them to support him in the constituency contest. In letters reported by RNZ, he urged voters to "do things differently" and argued that "David Seymour is guaranteed to be re-elected on the ACT Party list".

Goldsmith also described representing Epsom as the "greatest honour" of his career. According to RNZ's analysis of the polling figures, his sixth-place position on National's party list leaves his parliamentary future uncertain if the party's support remains at its current level.

Deputy leader Nicola Willis, senior MP and minister Chris Bishop, and Speaker Gerry Brownlee also face uncertainty over their parliamentary positions, RNZ reported. Their prospects depend in part on how many seats National secures through its party vote and constituency contests.

Luxon's leadership approval remains another challenge for National. RNZ reported that his net approval rating was unchanged at minus 23.7, while the party has previously held two confidence votes on his leadership amid internal criticism.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins, meanwhile, has improved his standing in the latest polling. According to RNZ, his net approval rating rose to positive 5 percent after two previous polls showed negative figures, while he led Luxon in preferred prime minister ratings, receiving 23 percent against Luxon's 17 percent.

Despite Labour's rise above 30 percent, the party would still need support from the Greens and Opportunity to form a government based on the latest figures. Opportunity recorded 7.2 percent, potentially placing it in a pivotal position during coalition negotiations.

New Zealand First and ACT could also influence the formation of the next government. The latest poll suggests that neither major party can assume it will govern alone, increasing the significance of smaller parties in negotiations after election day.

National has rejected the poll's findings, according to the New Zealand Herald, although the reported figures place the governing party below its 2020 election result. The poll's implications remain uncertain as voters prepare to choose the next Parliament.

New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system introduced in 1996. Parliament typically has 120 seats, including 71 electorate seats and 49 party-list seats, while parties generally need at least 5 percent of the party vote or an electorate seat to qualify for proportional representation.

According to the BBC's October 27 election guide, the cost of living remains the leading concern among voters. A September 2026 Ipsos survey found that 63 percent identified inflation and living costs as major issues, followed by healthcare and hospitals at 44 percent, the economy at 34 percent, and unemployment at 21 percent.

Advance voting began on October 26, while overseas voting started on October 21. Polling places are scheduled to open at 9 a.m. local time on November 7 and close at 7 p.m., with preliminary results expected to be released progressively from 7 p.m. that evening.

The Electoral Commission is scheduled to declare the official election results on November 27 after counting and verification are completed. The final composition of the government will depend on the election results and any coalition agreements reached by the parties.