Le Pen and Mélenchon Lead France 2027 Election Poll

France's 2027 presidential election could produce a second-round contest between far-right leader Marine Le Pen and far-left politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon, according to a new opinion poll conducted on October 21-22. Le Pen leads every tested candidate scenario, while Mélenchon consistently secures second place despite expectations that recent protests could weaken his support.

The survey gives Le Pen between 32% and 33.5% of the vote, depending on which candidates enter the race. Mélenchon records 17% across all scenarios, suggesting that his support remains relatively stable regardless of competition among other political groups.

The findings also indicate that the centrist vote could be divided between former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal. Philippe receives 15% when running as the only centrist candidate, falling to 13% when Attal also enters the contest. Attal receives just 4% in that scenario, compared with 9.5% if he runs alone.

If Attal replaces Philippe as the main centrist contender, Socialist-backed Raphaël Glucksmann could reach 15.5%. Bruno Retailleau, leader of the right-wing Les Républicains, could secure 11.5%, his strongest result among the scenarios examined.

Le Pen and her Rassemblement National (RN) party remain substantially ahead of their competitors. However, the poll does not guarantee Mélenchon a place in the runoff, as several months of campaigning and potential political alliances could still change the electoral picture.

In an earlier survey conducted between late August and early September, Mélenchon reached the second round only when both Philippe and Attal were running, splitting the centrist vote. The latest findings therefore represent a stronger position for the leader of La France Insoumise (LFI).

Mélenchon, 75, has demonstrated strong campaigning performances in previous presidential elections. His polling numbers increased by several percentage points during the final months of the last two presidential campaigns, according to the source report.

Le Pen, 58, has maintained her leading position across the latest scenarios. Nevertheless, several possible alliances, including cooperation between Glucksmann and the Greens and Communists, could influence the final outcome.

The survey was conducted shortly after protests across France on October 17. Although most demonstrations were peaceful, violence and looting involving fringe groups initially raised questions about the political consequences for LFI, which had publicly supported the protest movement.

Government officials and politicians on the right criticized LFI for backing the demonstrations, arguing that its position contributed to the unrest. The party rejected violence while maintaining its support for peaceful protests involving students and workers.

Subsequent demonstrations on October 24 were considerably more peaceful. Between 410,000 and 800,000 people participated in marches across France, according to the figures cited in the report. Unions also called for a general mobilization on November 5.

Public opinion figures from the same survey show widespread dissatisfaction following the October 17 unrest. Some 58% of respondents said they felt anger, 37% expressed concern, and 33% reported feeling shame.

When asked who was responsible for the situation, 81% blamed the government. Radical political groups followed at 79%, left-wing parties at 62%, and law enforcement at 52%.

Despite these findings, respondents were more critical of Mélenchon's reaction to the unrest than Le Pen's. A total of 71% judged Mélenchon to have displayed a poor attitude following October 17, compared with 43% for Le Pen.

Potential second-round support remains another obstacle for Mélenchon. Other opinion polls examining a hypothetical runoff between him and Le Pen have consistently shown the far-right leader winning.

A Mélenchon victory would require support from a broad range of political voters, including people who oppose LFI. The traditional Republican Front, in which rival parties unite to prevent a far-right victory, could prove particularly difficult to assemble if Mélenchon becomes Le Pen's opponent.

Several former LFI allies, including groups within the Communist movement, have ruled out forming another left-wing alliance with the party. Resistance among centrist and right-wing voters could further complicate Mélenchon's prospects in a potential second round.