USGS Forecasts Kilauea Eruption in Early November

Scientists are preparing for another potential eruption at Hawaii's Kilauea volcano, where the United States Geological Survey (USGS) expects the 56th eruptive episode to begin between November 2 and 9. The forecast follows changes in volcanic activity and pressure readings beneath the summit after the previous episode ended in October.

The USGS revised its initial forecast, which had placed the likely eruption window between November 1 and 7. In an update issued Friday, October 30, scientists said the latest observations pointed to a slightly later timeframe.

Kilauea's current eruptive cycle began on December 23, 2024, and has produced multiple episodes at relatively regular intervals. However, the volcano experienced an unusually long pause between its 54th episode on August 25 and its 55th episode on October 17.

According to the USGS, summit tiltmeters have recorded positive tilt exceeding levels commonly observed before lava fountaining begins. These measurements indicate continued pressurization within the summit magma chamber.

Scientists also noted that the buildup preceding episode 55 differed from earlier patterns. Instead of showing a steady increase, ground tilt remained negative or relatively stable for extended periods, complicating efforts to predict the timing of the next eruption.

The 55th episode lasted only a few hours but produced substantial volcanic activity. Lava fountains from the north vent reached approximately 720 feet into the air, according to observations reported by the USGS.

Recent observations also show differences in activity among Kilauea's summit vents. The western vent has displayed strong intermittent glowing, while the northern vent has shown a weaker glow. The southern vent has remained dark since it was buried during episode 55.

Seismic activity has provided additional information about the volcano's condition. The USGS recorded seismic tremors on Thursday and Friday, October 29 and 30. These signals consist of slowly developing seismic waves that can continue for minutes or days during periods of volcanic activity.

Four additional earthquakes, each measuring magnitude 1.5 or lower, were recorded in and around Kaluapele, Kilauea's caldera.

USGS scientists continue to monitor the volcano daily, evaluating ground deformation, seismic signals, and changes around its summit vents as they refine their forecast for the potential 56th eruptive episode.