Troy Jackson Leads Susan Collins in Maine Senate Poll

Democrat Troy Jackson has gained a narrow advantage over Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine's U.S. Senate race, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll released Oct. 9. The survey found Jackson supported by 50% of likely voters and Collins by 46%, putting the longtime incumbent under pressure in a contest that could influence control of the Senate in the Nov. 3 election.

The poll surveyed 800 likely voters from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points. Jackson's four-point lead falls within that margin, meaning the results do not establish a statistically decisive advantage. The survey was conducted before the candidates faced off in their first of four debates scheduled over 10 days.

Collins, who first won her Senate seat in 1996, is seeking a sixth term. Jackson, a former president of the Maine Senate, entered the race in July after previous Democratic nominee Graham Platner resigned amid rape allegations, according to USA Today.

Despite trailing in the overall poll, Collins retained an advantage on federal spending. The Washington Post-Schar School survey found that 54% of likely voters believed she would do a better job bringing federal funding to Maine. As chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Collins has emphasized the $1.5 billion she says she secured for projects in the state.

During their second debate, Collins expressed support for increasing Social Security tax contributions from high earners, aligning with a proposal advanced by Jackson. Her position marked a shift from her spokesperson's earlier statement that she had not committed to raising the taxable income limit.

Collins explained her position by comparing the tax treatment of high-income earners with that of workers earning substantially less.

"I don’t think someone who makes $40 million a year as a movie star should pay the same rate of social security taxes as someone who’s earning $184,000 a year. We simply are going to have to adjust the cap." Collins said.

Under current rules described by the Bangor Daily News, earnings above $184,500 annually are not subject to Social Security payroll taxes. The program's trust fund is projected to run short in late 2032, potentially triggering substantial benefit reductions unless Congress acts. Collins did not specify whether she favored eliminating the cap, increasing it or applying taxes above a higher threshold, while Jackson supports removing it and expanding benefits.

The candidates also clashed over the Iran war, with Jackson accusing Collins and her husband, political strategist and former lobbyist Tom Daffron, of benefiting financially from the conflict. Jackson cited Daffron's holdings in defense contractors Boeing and RTX, according to reporting by KATU and the Bangor Daily News.

Jackson argued that Collins could use her influence to challenge the conflict and accused the senator and her husband of profiting while Maine residents faced its consequences.

"She could use her leverage to stop the war, but instead they are making money. Sen. Collins and her husband are making money more off this, and so are a lot of other people.

That's why this doesn't stop. They got us into another forever war that we are never gonna get out of, and people in this state are feeling the effects of it," Jackson said.

Collins rejected the accusation and demanded an apology during the debate.

"That is absolutely outrageous, and you owe me an apology. That is absolutely outrageous," Collins said.

Jackson did not apologize. The Bangor Daily News reported that RTX shares had declined since the war began, while Boeing shares had traded sluggishly. The report also noted that Collins' 2020 campaign received nearly $12,000 from tobacco industry political action committees and employees, according to OpenSecrets.

Campaign financing became another point of contention. Collins challenged Jackson over donations accepted by the Maine Senate's Democratic campaign organization during his leadership, although Jackson has rejected corporate political action committee money in his Senate campaign.

Jackson previously described himself as one of several people involved in decisions about donations to the state legislative campaign organization.

"one of a number of people that made those decisions." Jackson said.

Collins disputed Jackson's position on tobacco industry contributions, referring to the difference between donations to his current campaign and money received by the legislative campaign organization.

"I have never accepted any donations from Big Tobacco. Troy has," Collins said.

Jackson has also sought to make Collins' relationship with President Donald Trump a central issue in the campaign, criticizing her record on immigration enforcement and other administration policies. Collins has emphasized her bipartisan credentials and her role in Senate spending decisions.

Abortion rights featured prominently in both debates. Both candidates said they would support federal protections, but they disagreed over their past positions. Collins defended her 2018 vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and cited her support for a 2022 bill intended to codify abortion rights protections associated with Roe v. Wade.

Jackson acknowledged that his earlier opposition to abortion rights was a mistake and criticized Collins for standing by her Kavanaugh vote despite opposing the Supreme Court decision that overturned federal abortion protections.

"I can admit when I was wrong," Jackson said.

Jackson then contrasted his change in position with Collins' continued defense of her judicial confirmation vote.

"Sen. Collins can’t." Jackson said.

Collins' campaign faces a competitive environment even though her reputation for working across party lines and understanding Maine voters could remain an advantage. USA Today noted that she outperformed polling expectations in 2020, while the latest survey indicates that Democrats are competitive in a state where the Senate race could help determine the chamber's balance of power.

Jackson is campaigning on progressive proposals that include Medicare for All, abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement and establishing federal abortion rights protections. He has received backing from Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, while Collins continues to highlight her experience and federal funding record.