Israeli Opposition Leads Netanyahu Bloc in Election Exit Polls

Israel's parliamentary election ended Tuesday with exit polls indicating that opposition parties led by Gadi Eisenkot held a narrow advantage over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing bloc, while Arab-led parties were projected to win a record number of seats. The results, released by major Israeli television networks after polls closed at 10 p.m. local time, suggested that neither side could secure a parliamentary majority without additional political partners.

According to the initial projections reported by The New York Times and The Guardian, Netanyahu's Likud party could emerge as the largest single party, despite the opposition bloc's overall advantage. Palestinian parties were projected to win 17 to 18 seats in the Knesset, up from 10 previously, potentially giving them decisive influence over negotiations to form the next government.

The exit polls remain preliminary. Israeli election officials must count paper ballots from more than 12,000 polling stations before publishing definitive results, according to The New York Times. Approximately 600,000 votes cast at special polling stations, including military bases, hospitals, prisons and embassies, were expected to account for about 10% of eligible voters, with their results not expected before Thursday.

Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister and member of the opposition alliance, declared that Netanyahu's government had lost its mandate during a televised address to supporters. He linked the incumbent administration to the security failure surrounding the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel.

"The government of Oct. 7 will go home," Bennett said.

Bennett said opposition parties would set aside personal differences to pursue a government that would require ultra-Orthodox Jewish men to serve in the military. He did not clarify whether a potential coalition would include Likud or Arab-led parties, according to The New York Times.

"will do everything, setting ego aside" Bennett said, referring to the opposition parties' efforts to form a government.

The projected gains for Arab-led parties have complicated Eisenkot's path to power. The Guardian reported that the opposition leader would probably need to negotiate with Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, the Joint List, or both to assemble a parliamentary majority.

Abbas, whose party previously participated in a government led by Bennett, emphasized his opposition to Netanyahu and far-right allies Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir.

"bring down Benjamin Netanyahu, [Bezalel] Smotrich, and [Itamar] Ben-Gvir in this election," Abbas said.

Ra'am was projected to win seven seats, while the Joint List was expected to secure 10 or more, according to estimates cited by The Guardian. Cooperation with the Joint List could prove more difficult because Eisenkot has demanded recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, acceptance of the principles in its declaration of independence, military conscription for Palestinian Israeli citizens, and condemnation of Hamas as a terrorist organization.

Amjad Shbita, general secretary of Hadash, the largest faction within the Joint List, rejected the idea that Eisenkot could dictate the terms of negotiations.

"Laying down conditions won't work with the Joint List," Shbita said.

He argued that both sides would need to negotiate on equal terms to reach an agreement.

"We will negotiate as equals because we need each other," Shbita said.

According to The New York Times, the election marked Israel's first national vote since the October 7 attack, which triggered a prolonged war that devastated Gaza and displaced nearly its entire population. Turnout was particularly strong in predominantly Arab communities, whose residents represent about one-fifth of Israel's population.

Netanyahu responded to increased participation in Arab towns by accusing Arab citizens of attempting to manipulate the election, according to The New York Times. Election committee acting director Dean Livne said officials had received no reports of widespread irregularities.

The opposing camps presented sharply different visions for Israel. Netanyahu's coalition advocated a more religious state and stronger Israeli control over the West Bank and Gaza, while opposition leaders promised to address the October 7 security failures, defend democratic institutions and improve Israel's international standing.

The Guardian reported that Eisenkot described the projected results as a victory for the country's Zionist national majority, although the need for Arab-party support could complicate his efforts to build a coalition.

"Israel's Zionist national majority," Eisenkot said.

President Isaac Herzog is expected to consult political leaders after official results are released and determine which candidate has the best chance of assembling a government. A coalition requires at least 61 lawmakers in the 120-seat Knesset, and the process could take weeks or longer.

The Guardian reported that if the first candidate cannot form a government within six weeks, the opportunity can pass to another candidate while Netanyahu's administration remains in a caretaker capacity. An alternative would be a minority government dependent on support from other parties on individual votes, a potentially unstable arrangement that could lead to another election.

Netanyahu's far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, declined to declare victory or concede defeat after the initial projections appeared. His response reflected the uncertainty surrounding the outcome as the country awaited the official count.

"The night is still young," Ben-Gvir said.

He expressed hope that Netanyahu's bloc would be able to establish a right-wing government.

"was close to forming a right-wing government," Ben-Gvir said.

Netanyahu has previously recovered from political setbacks by negotiating alliances, according to The Guardian. His party's ability to secure partners, however, remains uncertain until the final seat allocation and coalition negotiations are completed.