Hurricane Isaias Threatens Gulf Coast Refineries and Fuel Prices

Hurricane Isaias could drive up gasoline and diesel prices if flooding or power outages force Gulf Coast refineries to suspend operations, energy analysts warned Friday, Oct. 9, 2026. Although the storm was forecast to miss the oil industry's largest hubs, disruptions at facilities in Mississippi and Alabama could tighten fuel supplies already strained by international conflicts.

Andrew Lipow, a Houston-based oil analyst, said Chevron's facility in Pascagoula, Mississippi, and Vertex Energy's refinery in Mobile, Alabama, faced risks from flooding and power outages. Together, the two facilities account for 2.4% of U.S. refining capacity, Lipow said.

Extended shutdowns could worsen existing shortages, particularly in diesel supplies. Hurricane Isaias strengthened into a major hurricane Friday as it approached the Gulf Coast, prompting preparations for potentially life-threatening storm surges and high winds.

Carl Larry of energy analysis firm Enverus said a relatively quick passage with limited damage would likely result in only modest increases at the pump. Under that scenario, gasoline and diesel prices could rise by a few cents as refineries continued operating at reduced capacity.

Larry warned that a complete shutdown at major facilities could produce a much sharper increase because restarting refinery operations may take weeks.

"Major issues, like a power shutdown, and the prices will spike immediately. It’s possible a dollar," said Carl Larry of Enverus. "Those diesel prices that already are above $6 could start approaching $7."

The potential increase would come as diesel prices were already above $6, according to Larry. The extent of any price movement would depend on the severity of refinery disruptions and the time required to restore operations.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, offered a more limited assessment of the potential impact on gasoline prices. He estimated that the refining capacity affected could amount to approximately 500,000 barrels per day, remaining below 1 million barrels per day.

"We’re talking about potentially under a million barrels a day, probably somewhere in the ballpark of 500,000 barrels a day, of refining capacity," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. "That may have a small impact on gas prices, primarily in the Gulf Coast, but I don’t think it rises to a criteria that would impact gas prices nationally."

Meanwhile, the hurricane had already prompted precautionary shutdowns at offshore oil wells producing about 15% of U.S. crude oil. According to the federal Marine Minerals Administration, personnel from 129 production platforms, representing about one-third of facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, had been evacuated by Friday.

The agency said more than two-thirds of Gulf oil production had been suspended as a precaution, removing nearly 1.5 million barrels, or 61 million gallons, of oil per day from production. Chevron, BP and Shell were among the companies that reported evacuating workers and shutting down platforms.

Despite the disruptions, the storm's effect on oil and gas prices remained smaller than the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, according to the report. International crude prices had been elevated by geopolitical uncertainty, while Russia's war against Ukraine had also contributed to pressure on fuel supplies.

De Haan expected offshore production to recover relatively quickly after the hurricane passed, provided the storm caused no significant damage.

"I would expect that the shut-in oil production will probably return pretty quickly within just a couple of days," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded above $104 per barrel Friday. Its price had fluctuated between $96 and nearly $110 over the previous month amid uncertainty surrounding the war with Iran.