Ipswich Show Strong Attacking Numbers Despite Defensive Weaknesses

Ipswich Town's return to the Premier League has featured encouraging attacking production alongside significant defensive vulnerabilities, according to Fantasy Football Scout's October 6 analysis. Under Gary O'Neil, the newly promoted side won two of their first five league matches, collecting six points to sit 11th during the international break ahead of their October 10 meeting with Fulham.

The underlying statistics highlighted Ipswich's ability to create opportunities despite inconsistent results. Fantasy Football Scout reported that the team generated at least 1.4 expected goals (xG) in four of its opening five fixtures, while its open-play expected goals total of 7.32 ranked fourth in the league, ahead of Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea.

However, defensive figures revealed a contrasting picture, particularly away from home. Ipswich conceded 86 shots, 17 big chances and 7.6 expected goals from open play, placing the club among the league's bottom four in all three categories. Fifteen of those 17 big chances conceded came in away matches, according to the analysis.

Ipswich's opening results included a 2-1 victory over Sunderland, a 2-5 defeat against Manchester United, a 0-2 loss to Liverpool, a 3-2 win at Crystal Palace and a 0-1 defeat at Everton. The statistical review recorded 1.80 xG and 0.66 expected goals conceded against Sunderland, while the figures against Liverpool were 0.75 and 0.69, respectively.

The analysis also noted that Ipswich's home defensive performance against Liverpool required context because the visitors established an early 2-0 lead and subsequently had less need to maintain an aggressive attacking approach. Against Crystal Palace, Ipswich secured their second victory in five matches while facing a home side reduced to 10 players.

Defensive selection had also changed before the Fulham fixture. Dara O'Shea, Issa Diop and Leif Davis had played every minute of the opening five matches, according to Fantasy Football Scout. Jacob Greaves and Kjell Scherpen, who started the first four games, lost their places to Abdoul Ouattara and Christian Walton in the most recent lineup covered by the analysis. O'Shea moved from right-back to center-back as a result.

In attack, Emersonn, Abdul Fatawu, Julio Enciso and Saša Lukić had started every match during the opening five gameweeks. Enciso accumulated more playing time than Fatawu and Emersonn, both of whom were regularly substituted early. Fatawu was also suspended for Gameweek 6, creating a selection issue ahead of Fulham's visit.

Exequiel Palacios had established himself alongside Lukić in central midfield following his late-August arrival. On the left flank, Daizen Maeda started three matches before Jack Clarke replaced him.

Set-piece responsibilities were shared primarily by Lukić and Fatawu, who had each taken eight corners across the opening five gameweeks. Fantasy Football Scout also recorded one crossed free kick each for Fatawu, Lukić and Davis, while no direct free-kick shots or penalties were listed in the review.

A separate Sports Mole data analysis published on October 9 assessed Ipswich as the more likely winner of the October 10 match against Fulham, assigning the home side a 40.73% win probability. Fulham's chances of victory were calculated at 33.42%, with a draw at 25.89%. The most likely individual scoreline was a 1-1 draw at 12.27%, followed by a 1-0 Ipswich win at 10.18%.

Those projections preceded the match and contrasted with the defensive concerns identified in Ipswich's opening-five-game statistical review. The two analyses examined different aspects of the fixture, combining season-long performance indicators with a pre-match assessment of the likely result.