Ford Faces F150 Supply Disruption Ahead of Third Quarter Results

Ford Motor is preparing to release its third-quarter 2026 financial results after the US stock market closes Wednesday, October 28, as investors assess whether production disruptions, declining electric vehicle sales, and warranty expenses will affect its full-year outlook. Analysts expect automotive revenue of approximately $46.24 billion and adjusted earnings per share of 40 cents, according to estimates compiled by LSEG.

The projected revenue would represent a 2% decline from the $47.19 billion recorded in the third quarter of 2025, while adjusted earnings per share would fall approximately 11% from 45 cents. Ford reported net income of $2.4 billion in the year-earlier quarter, according to CNBC.

Ford raised its 2026 adjusted earnings before interest and taxes guidance last quarter to $10 billion to $11 billion, up from its previous range of $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion. The company also increased its adjusted free cash flow forecast to $6 billion to $7 billion, while analysts expect capital expenditures of $9.9 billion within its existing $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion range.

A key concern is a late-September supplier disruption that interrupted F-150 production. According to Reuters, Ford canceled production crews at its Dearborn Truck Plant for nearly a week, while its Kansas City Assembly facility also reduced shifts.

Ford's production figures showed F-150 output falling from more than 57,500 units in August to fewer than 43,000 in September. The company characterized the disruption as a temporary issue separate from earlier supply challenges.

Ford described the production interruption as "a short-term supplier issue unrelated to aluminum" and said the financial impact was "containable within the full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance."

The company also faces pressure from weaker vehicle sales. Ford's US sales fell 6.6% in the third quarter to 509,764 vehicles, which it attributed to planned discontinuations of the Escape and Lincoln Corsair. Excluding those models, sales volume was essentially flat, although F-Series truck sales declined 1.9%.

Ford unveiled an updated 2027 F-150 last month, adding more V8 engine options that the company said customers wanted. Investors are watching whether demand for its pickup lineup can offset production challenges affecting one of its most important vehicle ranges.

Electric vehicles present another challenge. Ford's third-quarter EV sales plunged 80%, extending a downturn that began last year after the federal EV tax credit expired. The company has discontinued the F-150 Lightning electric pickup and is counting on its new Fathom EV pickup, starting at $28,350, to strengthen its position in the market.

Ford's Model e electric vehicle division is expected to report a loss of $1.17 billion on revenue of $1.12 billion. The projected loss exceeds the $919 million recorded in the previous quarter, while spending on the Universal EV platform and Ford Energy is expected to contribute to costs.

Ford said in July that its Model e outlook included approximately $1 billion in additional spending on those initiatives, with most of the expenditure expected in the second half of 2026.

Analysts generally expect Ford to maintain its current full-year guidance, although uncertainty remains over the financial effects of the F-150 production interruption and potential changes in warranty costs. Ford executives are scheduled to discuss the results during an earnings conference call at 5 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday.