Donalds Leads Jolly 48 to 46 in Florida Governor Poll

Republican Byron Donalds holds a narrow 48% to 46% advantage over Democrat David Jolly in Florida's gubernatorial race, according to a St. Pete Polls survey conducted October 25-27 for Florida Politics. The contest remains statistically close ahead of the November 3 election, with the candidates divided over healthcare, education, and local government authority.

The survey of 916 likely voters gives Donalds a lead within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. Another 3% support other candidates, while 3% remain undecided. The poll's electorate is weighted toward Republicans at a 12-point advantage over Democrats, compared with an approximately eight-point Republican registration advantage statewide.

Jolly performs substantially better among voters who have already cast ballots, leading Donalds 58% to 38%. Among respondents who still plan to vote, Donalds leads 57% to 34%, according to the survey. Overall, 46% of respondents said they had voted.

Official Florida Division of Elections figures cited by Florida Politics showed 3.15 million ballots cast by mail or at early voting sites as of Tuesday morning. Republicans had cast 1,257,198 ballots, compared with 1,244,432 for Democrats, a Republican advantage of 12,766 votes. Democrats led mail voting 643,143 to 529,943, while Republicans led in-person early voting 727,255 to 601,289.

The latest survey marks a shift from earlier polling by the same firm. Donalds received 44% and Jolly 43% in mid-September, before the candidates reached 45% apiece in an October 5-7 survey. The share of undecided voters declined from 9% to 7% and then 3%.

Party affiliation remains a major dividing line. Donalds attracts 81% of Republicans, while Jolly receives 81% of Democrats. Jolly leads independent voters 56% to 34%, compared with a 49% to 33% advantage in the previous October survey. Donalds leads voters aged 70 and older 65% to 31%, while Jolly leads among voters younger than 70 across the three reported age groups.

Beyond the election figures, the next governor will inherit substantial authority over Florida's healthcare administration, education system, and relationship with local governments, according to an analysis published by The Conversation. The winner will appoint the state surgeon general and members of the Board of Education, giving the administration influence over public health policy and educational oversight.

Florida's vaccine requirements are a potential early policy dispute. Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo proposed changes in October 2026 that would eliminate school attendance requirements for four vaccines, including those for chickenpox and hepatitis B. The Florida Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics opposes the proposed changes on public health grounds.

However, the next governor's authority would remain limited by existing state law. The Florida Legislature requires measles and polio vaccinations for K-12 public school students, meaning those requirements cannot be removed without legislative action. Lawmakers also stripped the surgeon general of the power to enforce vaccine mandates during public health emergencies in November 2021.

Education funding presents another challenge. Florida's universal school voucher program, established by Gov. Ron DeSantis and the Legislature in 2023, allows families of any income level to use state funding averaging US$8,000, based on county of residence, for private schooling or homeschooling. The program cost an estimated $4.5 billion in fiscal year 2026, while state auditors identified accountability concerns over how the funds were tracked.

Donalds has proposed a universal scorecard allowing parents to compare student performance across different types of schools. Jolly also supports vouchers but has called for private schools receiving public funds to meet the same standards as public schools, including requirements to serve students with disabilities. He has also proposed limiting private school tuition to the voucher amount and restoring eligibility rules based on financial need.

Both candidates would face legislative constraints in changing the voucher system because the program was established by state lawmakers. The next governor could also influence education policy through appointments to Florida's seven-member Board of Education, which oversees the Department of Education and helps shape statewide education administration.

Local government authority is a third major issue. DeSantis signed legislation restricting local control over land development and required counties to cooperate with federal immigration authorities. His administration also conducted audits of local governments and removed elected officials, including Hillsborough County State Attorney Andrew Warren and State Attorney Monique Worrell, who served Orange and Osceola counties.

Donalds has endorsed DeSantis' approach and plans to expand audits of local governments and remove elected officials when necessary. The candidates differ on large-scale data centers: Donalds wants local communities to decide whether such facilities should be built, while Jolly has also addressed the issue as part of the broader debate over local authority.

St. Pete Polls collected responses through automated telephone calls, accounting for 71% of interviews, and peer-to-peer text messages, accounting for 29%. Respondents were randomly selected from Florida's registered voter file as of October 14, and the results were weighted by party affiliation, race, age, gender, and media market.