Fleet Week Air Shows Face Weather Challenges in San Francisco

San Francisco Fleet Week air shows are drawing large crowds to the waterfront as the Blue Angels headline performances from Friday through Sunday, while weather officials warn that wind, fog and changing coastal conditions could affect visibility and flying conditions.

According to NBC Bay Area, the annual event runs from Oct. 4 through Oct. 12 and includes three air shows featuring military aircraft, aerobatic teams and a United Airlines 777 demonstration. More than a million people are expected to attend the broader Fleet Week activities, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

The National Weather Service's Bay Area office said a sharp weather shift is approaching after an October heat wave, with cooler temperatures and stronger winds expected during the air show weekend. SFGATE reported that forecasters are monitoring conditions that could influence the schedule.

"A drastic change is coming," Dylan Flynn, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service's Bay Area office, said.

Flynn explained that temperatures in inland areas had reached triple digits before a cooldown, with coastal locations expected to become much colder. He said several weather systems were combining to produce the change.

"a sharp cooldown" is forecast to arrive by the weekend, Dylan Flynn, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service's Bay Area office, said.

According to SFGATE, the weather pattern involves a dipping jet stream, a weak low-pressure system moving from the west, and remnants of Hurricane Rachel approaching California.

"Together, they’ll bring us a high amplitude trough of low pressure that will completely flip the script," Dylan Flynn, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service's Bay Area office, said.

High winds of up to 30 mph were expected from the northwest, with the strongest conditions forecast for Saturday. The weather service was also coordinating with the U.S. Coast Guard on safety conditions.

"I’m not the expert, but there could be some disruptions to programming," Dylan Flynn, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service's Bay Area office, said.

Flynn also discussed fog movement and possible effects from offshore conditions, including a southerly swell with waves of 10 to 12 feet that could affect flying conditions.

"If there are clouds, they should be moving through pretty fast," Dylan Flynn, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service's Bay Area office, said.

Fleet Week includes the Parade of Ships and three air shows, with the Blue Angels scheduled as the closing performance at 3 p.m. each day. NBC Bay Area listed performances including the F-22 Raptor Demo Team, F-35B Demo and Heritage Flight.

"a foot of storm surge on a sunny, warm day before the storm is here," Dylan Flynn, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service's Bay Area office, said.

The coastal flood advisory was expected to remain in effect from Friday morning through Tuesday afternoon, according to SFGATE. Flynn said tidal conditions were elevated by seasonal and ocean factors.

"So when you add an extra foot of water to a normal spring tide, we’re talking about king tide territory," Dylan Flynn, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service's Bay Area office, said.

Flynn said the unusual combination of conditions could affect coastal areas beyond Fleet Week.

"But what’s unusual and what I’ve never seen is that we have a foot of storm surge on a sunny, warm day before the storm is here. Everything built on top of that means it’s going to be a very impactful year from a coastal flooding perspective. We’re very likely to break some records come November," Dylan Flynn, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service's Bay Area office, said.