England Records Early Flu Rise as Experts Urge Vaccination

Flu activity is increasing earlier than usual in England, with the UK Health Security Agency reporting higher-than-average September activity, rising positive tests and emergency visits above seasonal expectations as officials monitor the start of the 2026 winter virus season.

According to UKHSA surveillance data published on October 8, influenza remained at baseline levels but continued to increase. The latest report showed laboratory positivity reached 6.5%, up from 5.0% the previous Sunday, while GP influenza-like illness consultations rose to 5.6 per 100,000.

UKHSA said influenza activity throughout September was higher than in the same period during the previous four winter seasons. The agency reported that the rise was driven largely by cases among people aged 18 to 24, with H1N1 and H3N2 influenza A subtypes circulating in England.

Prof Sir Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, said vaccination remains the main measure for people at higher risk of serious illness.

"There is one simple action for all those who are at risk because of age or their underlying health conditions, which is to get vaccinated as soon as possible and before we reach the peak of transmission." said Prof Sir Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group.

Pollard said an early flu season does not necessarily indicate a more severe season. He said the timing can vary because of factors including weather, virus strains, population immunity and changes in social behavior.

"We don’t know for certain why the timing varies each year." said Prof Sir Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group.

Antonia Ho, professor of infectious diseases at the University of Glasgow’s Centre for Virus Research, said vaccines take several weeks to provide full protection and that early vaccination can help before wider transmission occurs.

"An early rise in influenza cases may indicate a more intense influenza season overall, because earlier onset is associated with a longer period of community transmission and higher cumulative case numbers. However, onset timing alone doesn’t determine severity." said Antonia Ho, professor of infectious diseases at the University of Glasgow’s Centre for Virus Research.

Ho said the current vaccine covers the main influenza types circulating this season. UKHSA is monitoring whether changes in the H1N1 subtype affect vaccine performance.

"The flu vaccine covers both subtypes and also influenza B," said Antonia Ho, professor of infectious diseases at the University of Glasgow’s Centre for Virus Research.

UKHSA estimated that England’s vaccination programme last winter prevented around 100,000 hospital admissions and 7,000 deaths. The agency also noted that vaccine uptake this season was lower than the previous year among some older adults, clinical risk groups and young children.

John Tregoning, professor of vaccine immunology at Imperial College London, said earlier vaccination uptake may have influenced last winter’s outcome after an early flu start.

"Last year is a good example where [we] also had an early start to the flu season, and then because of that, probably people slightly changed their behaviours and went and got vaccinated, and then it comes down again." said John Tregoning, professor of vaccine immunology at Imperial College London.

Tregoning also highlighted the importance of vaccination against COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus as seasonal respiratory infections increase.

Ho advised people with flu-like symptoms to reduce contact with others and maintain hygiene measures.

"If you have flu-like symptoms, ideally stay at home, practice good hand hygiene, avoid contact with others." said Antonia Ho, professor of infectious diseases at the University of Glasgow’s Centre for Virus Research.