El-Sayed Leads Rogers in Michigan Senate Race Ahead of Election

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has established a polling advantage over Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's closely contested 2026 U.S. Senate election, with multiple October surveys showing the Democratic nominee ahead before voters decide the race on November 3. The candidates are competing to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters in a contest that could influence control of the Senate.

According to polling figures compiled by the Lansing State Journal, El-Sayed leads Rogers in several recent surveys. A CNN poll conducted October 20-27 showed El-Sayed ahead 49%-42%, while an October 26-27 Mitchell Research & Communications survey for CBS Detroit recorded a 51%-44% advantage.

An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted October 21-22 produced a narrower result, with El-Sayed receiving 47% support and Rogers 46%. RealClearPolitics' polling average also placed El-Sayed ahead by 3.2 percentage points based on surveys completed between October 5 and October 27.

The October 19-22 WDIV/Detroit News/Glengariff survey showed El-Sayed leading 51.4%-45.1%. Meanwhile, the October 15-18 Marist poll recorded support of 50% for El-Sayed and 48% for Rogers among likely voters.

Although the Democratic candidate has maintained an advantage, previous polling underestimated how closely he would compete during the August Democratic primary. El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens by less than 1 percentage point despite several earlier surveys projecting a substantially larger margin.

El-Sayed emphasized economic pressures, healthcare costs and government spending during a Thursday rally at Western Michigan University's Miller Auditorium in Kalamazoo, where Sen. Elissa Slotkin joined him to encourage Democratic voters.

Addressing supporters, El-Sayed connected household expenses with broader government spending priorities.

"It shouldn't be this hard to buy a second bag of groceries. It shouldn't be this hard to see a doctor, and it shouldn't be this hard to pay your taxes and know that that money is going to be spent on you and your kids, rather than dropping bombs on somebody else and their kids. It shouldn't be this hard," El-Sayed said.

He also appealed to working-class voters while criticizing the influence of wealthy individuals in politics.

"We just don't want our hard work exploited by a billionaire from New York or a millionaire from Florida. We got five days left. It's time for us to build out the Michigan we deserve," El-Sayed said.

Slotkin presented the election as a defining political choice for Michigan Democrats, arguing that the contest extends beyond disagreements over ideological labels.

"The question on the table is not like, are you a moderate? Are you a progressive? The difference today with this man in the White House is just simply, are you on team fight or you are on team flight?" Slotkin said.

El-Sayed's campaign also received an important development involving Stevens, whom he defeated in the Democratic primary. The congresswoman is scheduled to campaign alongside him on Sunday, marking their first joint appearance since August.

However, Stevens' fiancé, Michigan lawyer Jason Turkish, publicly criticized El-Sayed during a Rogers campaign event. Turkish said he would not support the Democratic nominee because of his repeated criticism of Israel's conduct in Gaza.

"Every time [El-Sayed] talks about genocide, Jews get death threats," Turkish said. "We have never seen a candidate for U.S. Senate act so recklessly toward the safety of Jews in the community as we have seen from Abdul."

The Associated Press reported that Stevens plans to campaign with El-Sayed despite the disagreement. The development comes as Rogers attempts to attract Democratic voters who supported Stevens during the primary, particularly Black and Jewish voters.

Michigan's political divisions make the contest particularly significant. The state supported Donald Trump in 2016, Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump again in 2024, with each presidential election decided by relatively narrow margins.

El-Sayed, 41, is campaigning on progressive proposals including Medicare for All and ending U.S. military assistance to Israel. He is also seeking to become the country's first Muslim senator.

His criticism of Israel's military campaign in Gaza has become a central controversy. El-Sayed has described the conflict as a genocide and challenged Democrats who avoid using that characterization.

In an April interview with CNN, he explained his position on the parties involved in the conflict.

"Killing tens of thousands of people makes you pretty damn evil. It's not how evil is this one versus that one. Hamas: evil.

Israeli government: evil. We can say both," El-Sayed said.

His religious identity has also become a focus of Republican criticism. Donald Trump has called him a "jihadist" and accused him of being "on the side of the terrorists," while Vice President JD Vance claimed that El-Sayed had "zero attachment" to the United States.

El-Sayed was born and raised in Michigan and is a U.S. citizen. Republicans have also alleged that he supports the Muslim Brotherhood, although the source material provides no evidence supporting that allegation.

During a town hall exchange about the organization, El-Sayed challenged what he considered an assumption about his loyalty based on his religion.

"I'm not running to be a Muslim senator. I'm running for the U.S. Senate and happen to be Muslim," El-Sayed said.

He also responded to Trump's use of his middle name, Mohamed, during a campaign appearance in Grand Rapids.

"I don't care how he pronounces my name. Because he can just go on and call me 'senator' after November. I will be Senator Mohamed to you, bro," El-Sayed said.

Explaining his willingness to confront political opponents, El-Sayed previously defended his approach to campaigning and his choice of political allies.

"If perfectly inoffensive won elections, then Donald Trump would never have been president," he said in April.

Rogers, 63, is a former congressman who narrowly lost to Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin in the previous Senate election. He has since publicly disagreed with Trump over tariffs and the war in Iran.

His campaign is targeting older voters, including nearly 4 million Michigan residents aged 50 and above. He is also attempting to attract Black and Jewish Democrats who supported Stevens during the primary.

The Senate contest carries national implications because Democrats currently hold 47 seats, including two independents who caucus with them. They need 51 seats to regain control, while a 50-50 chamber would leave Vice President JD Vance with the deciding vote.

Michigan remains among the most competitive states in the national Senate landscape, with the November 3 election approaching and early in-person voting already underway.