El Niño Intensifies Extreme Weather Across Five Global Regions

Extreme weather across Asia and the Pacific is highlighting the growing influence of El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that is contributing to drought, wildfires, and increasingly active Pacific storms. Indonesia, India, Japan, eastern China, and the United States are experiencing different effects as scientists warn that the current event could strengthen further and persist until at least 2027, according to the World Meteorological Agency.

Data published by the BBC on October 19, 2026, show that Indonesia has experienced its worst wildfire season since 2015, while the eastern Pacific has recorded unusually high hurricane activity. Meanwhile, India is facing below-average monsoon rainfall, and the Atlantic hurricane season remains comparatively quiet.

Indonesia's wildfire crisis has been particularly severe. At least 895,657 hectares of land have burned since January, an area nearly six times the size of Greater London and more than twice the area affected by fires during the previous year, when El Niño was not influencing conditions.

The fires have forced school closures and increased hospital admissions. Millions of people in Sumatra and Kalimantan have been exposed to toxic smoke, while approximately 175,000 people have experienced respiratory illnesses. More than 40,000 cases involve toddlers, with conditions ranging from coughs and bronchitis to pneumonia.

The eastern Pacific has also experienced an exceptional concentration of tropical storms. According to the BBC, the basin has recorded 22 named storms and 12 hurricanes, including 10 major hurricanes, with two months remaining in the season.

El Niño can favor stronger Pacific hurricanes by increasing ocean temperatures and weakening upper-level atmospheric winds. Hurricane Polo demonstrated this pattern, rapidly intensifying over unusually warm water and producing wind gusts of 180 mph (285 km/h). Polo also formed during a period when hurricanes Odalys and Nolo were active in the same basin.

Three simultaneous hurricanes also occurred in the central and eastern Pacific in September: Lowell, Karina, and Marie. The last time three Pacific hurricanes were active simultaneously before this year was in 2015, according to the BBC.

In contrast, the Atlantic hurricane season has remained unusually subdued. The BBC reported eight tropical storms, named Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, and Hanna, alongside one hurricane, Isaias, which made landfall in the Florida Panhandle and Alabama.

The limited Atlantic activity is consistent with El Niño's tendency to increase wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. These stronger upper-atmosphere winds can disrupt developing storms before they strengthen into hurricanes.

India is experiencing a different consequence of shifting climate patterns. The country's monsoon rainfall has been 13% below average, according to the BBC, although the India Meteorological Department considers the national figure within its normal range.

Regional differences reveal a more uneven situation. Eastern and northeastern India received approximately 26% less rainfall than average, placing these areas in the exceptional drought category, while southern states recorded a 24% shortfall. Central India received rainfall closer to its expected average.

Rainfall patterns have also become less consistent, alternating between extended dry periods and episodes of intense precipitation. These fluctuations increase pressure on agriculture and may affect crop yields. Scientists caution that El Niño is not the only factor influencing India's monsoon, which responds to multiple atmospheric and oceanic systems.

In the western Pacific, Japan and eastern China have faced widespread flooding and landslides associated with storms including Maysak and Dujuan. The Japan Meteorological Agency recorded 10 tropical cyclones forming in the western Pacific, the highest seasonal total since 1966, according to the BBC.

El Niño changes Pacific wind patterns, encouraging some cyclones to develop farther east. This can give storms more time to draw energy from warm ocean waters before reaching Japan or eastern China, potentially increasing their intensity. Scientists expect additional typhoons to develop this year, with further impacts possible in both areas.

A separate analysis published by CNN on October 14 emphasized that El Niño does not produce identical outcomes in every event. Meteorologists and climate scientists point to interactions with other atmospheric and oceanic cycles as reasons why regional effects can differ, even during strong episodes.

Michael McPhaden, a veteran El Niño researcher, described the variability of these events in comments to CNN.

"No two are exactly the same." said Michael McPhaden.

McPhaden also highlighted the unpredictability of the climate system. The 2015-to-2016 super El Niño, for example, did not bring California the excessive rainfall that some forecasts had anticipated based on previous strong events.

Ocean processes also play an important role. Kelvin waves transport substantial amounts of heat from the western Pacific toward the central and eastern Pacific, helping support El Niño conditions. After reaching South America, these waves can travel north along the West Coast, temporarily raising sea levels by 6 to 12 inches and increasing coastal vulnerability during high tides and winter storms.

Dillon Amaya of North Carolina State University explained to CNN that these waves are broad, gradual changes in ocean height rather than tsunami-like surges.

"A Kelvin wave is not a tsunami or a wall of water," said Dillon Amaya.

Amaya said the gradual nature of the change makes it difficult to observe directly from the beach.

"It's an increase in the height of the nearest ~15 miles of water to the coast of 6-12 inches," said Dillon Amaya.

He added that the change extends across such a wide area that its vertical movement is difficult to distinguish visually.

"Because that signal is so wide relative to the vertical change, it's going to be hard for people to see in the same way they see a crashing wave." said Dillon Amaya.

Scientists also distinguish El Niño from human-caused climate change, although the relationship between them remains an active area of research. Some studies suggest climate change could intensify El Niño episodes, but the findings require further replication before they can be widely accepted.

The current event is developing against a backdrop of exceptionally warm oceans. El Niño transfers stored ocean heat into the atmosphere, potentially raising global average temperatures for one to two years. CNN reported that 2026, and particularly 2027, could set new records for the planet's warmest years.

El Niño typically occurs every three to seven years, with only some events becoming strong enough to receive the informal designation of a super El Niño. Its effects vary by region, producing conditions that can suppress Atlantic hurricanes or contribute to warmer winters in parts of the United States while increasing the risk of drought, fires, and powerful storms elsewhere.