Democrats Gain Midterm Momentum as Early Voting Surges

Democrats are entering the final stretch of the 2026 US midterm elections with stronger early voting participation and favorable polling, while Republicans face competitive races across several states. The Cook Political Report projects that Democrats could capture as many as 240 House seats, potentially securing control of Congress in the November 3 elections.

Nearly 33 million Americans had already cast ballots by Tuesday afternoon, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. The figure represents more than one-quarter of the approximately 122 million people who participated in the 2022 midterm elections.

About half of the early ballots were submitted in person, while the remainder arrived by mail. The University of Florida data also showed that registered Democrats accounted for approximately 45% of early voters, compared with 31% for Republicans and 24% for voters without either party registration.

These party figures cover 27 states with formal party registration systems. They identify voters' political registration rather than the candidates they selected.

Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida who directs the Election Lab, cautioned against treating early voting figures as reliable election predictions. He emphasized that consistent patterns across states and successive voting days provide more meaningful indications of voter engagement.

"Once you start seeing consistency across multiple days of voting and across multiple states, it starts giving us more confidence that whatever we're seeing in terms of relative engagement, that's likely going to carry through to election day," McDonald told TIME.

McDonald also noted that Republicans have historically gained ground on Election Day, making comparisons between early voting and final results particularly important.

"We expect the Democrats to build up a lead in the early vote, and Election Day tends to be a Republican day, so you can't just look at the early vote as it is now," McDonald said.

A PBS News/NPR/Marist survey released Tuesday found that 52% of likely voters favored Democratic House candidates, compared with 44% supporting Republicans. Independent voters favored Democrats by 13 percentage points.

The same survey found that 71% of Democratic supporters were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 61% of Republican supporters. A separate Pew Research Center survey found that 78% of Democratic-leaning voters considered congressional control very important, against 69% of Republican-leaning voters.

Political scientist Bernard Fraga of Emory University linked the turnout gap to differences in enthusiasm among voters who participated in the 2024 presidential election.

"This is a story about Democrats who voted in 2024 persisting, and Republicans who voted in 2024 so far at least staying home," Fraga told TIME.

Another factor in the political landscape is dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump's administration. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday placed his approval rating at 32%, one percentage point above the previous week's figure, which marked the lowest level of his second term.

Fraga described the administration's performance as "failures" that had weakened Republican enthusiasm, particularly among voters concerned about economic conditions.

"Even for steadfast Republican voters, they look at the state of the economy, for example, and say that they're not too enthusiastic about voting," Fraga said.

He also highlighted the difference in political engagement between the parties as the election approaches.

"Reading the trends, it's clear that Democrats are enthusiastic and mobilized to a much greater degree than even the Republican voters," Fraga said.

Recent surveys have also suggested a potential "blue wave" of Democratic support. One YouGov poll found that 54% of independent voters favored Democratic candidates, compared with 27% who supported Republicans.

A separate PBS News/NPR/Marist survey showed an even wider Democratic advantage among independent voters. Pew Research Center also found that 78% of Democratic supporters said control of Congress "really matters," compared with 69% of Republican supporters.

Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg argued that independent voters could further strengthen Democratic performance beyond what party-registration figures suggest.

Rosenberg also identified increased participation among Hispanic voters as a significant development. Early voting among Hispanic Americans was exceeding participation at comparable stages of the 2022 and 2024 election cycles, according to his assessment.

The campaign environment has also prompted changes to President Trump's schedule. The Republican National Committee announced that Trump would replace planned weekend appearances in Iowa and Kansas with telephone rallies as part of a "72-hour sprint" covering nearly 20 states.

Trump had conducted 25 rallies during October as of Thursday, falling short of his earlier target of more than 30 appearances. The Republican National Committee said the telephone events would allow him to reach voters across a wider geographic area.

His cancellation of an appearance in Kansas drew criticism from a Reuters reporter who asked about the decision to skip a rally supporting Republican Senator Roger Marshall.

"You're sick to ask that question," Trump responded.

Trump also traveled to South Carolina for the second time in a month as Republicans faced a competitive Senate contest. Republican candidate Darline Graham is confronting a challenge from Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly three decades.

Andrews, who previously ran unsuccessfully for Congress, encouraged voters seeking political change to "try something new for once."

Other closely watched contests include races in Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska. Both parties are also monitoring the Mississippi Senate race, according to the Associated Press.

In Ohio, Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy confirmed Thursday that his campaign had stopped airing an attack advertisement featuring the estranged mother of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton.

In Alaska, Trump renewed his demand that Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola face criminal prosecution and disqualification over allegations involving the recruitment of a man named Dan Sullivan to challenge Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan.

Meanwhile, Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed planned to campaign Sunday in Detroit alongside Haley Stevens, the congresswoman he narrowly defeated in the Democratic primary in August.

Separately, Tom Hoyle, who attracted attention after comparing Trump supporters to a "cult" during a live Fox News interview ahead of the president's South Carolina rally, was escorted out of the venue by three Secret Service agents.

Election Day is scheduled for November 3, with additional early voting expected before polling concludes.