Democrats Gain Ground as Trump Intensifies Midterm Campaigns

With the November 3, 2026, US midterm elections approaching, Democrats are gaining ground in national polling while Republicans face increasingly competitive Senate contests across traditionally conservative states. President Donald Trump intensified his campaign efforts in Texas on October 27, holding two rallies to support Republican candidates as both parties seek control of Congress.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted October 22-26 found that 47 percent of voters supported Democrats, compared with 36 percent backing Republicans. When the preferences of undecided voters were included, the Democratic lead widened to 50 percent against 41 percent, while Trump's approval rating rose one percentage point to 32 percent.

The same survey found that 73 percent of US adults believed the cost of living was moving in the wrong direction. Economic concerns and fuel prices have become prominent campaign issues amid the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran.

Texas has emerged as a major battleground, with Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton running nearly even despite Trump's repeated visits to the state. Democrats have not won a Texas Senate election since 1988, making the contest particularly significant for both parties.

Al Jazeera correspondent Phil Lavelle described the president's frequent appearances in Texas as evidence of Republican concern about the race.

"The good people of Texas have probably never seen so much of President Trump. Four visits in seven weeks, which, to put that into context, is twice as many as we saw at the comparable period leading up to the 2024 election, which perhaps shows just how concerned Republicans are," said Phil Lavelle, an Al Jazeera correspondent reporting from Corpus Christi.

Lavelle also noted that early voting analysis suggested more Republicans than Democrats had cast ballots in Texas. However, Talarico has sought support from Republicans dissatisfied with Trump, complicating assumptions about how early votes will translate into candidate support.

"That doesn’t mean Republicans are voting for Republican candidates," Lavelle said.

Michigan and Kansas also feature closely contested Senate races. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is challenging Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan, while Kansas Republican incumbent Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.

Michael Alexander, a Native American voter supporting El-Sayed, described his departure from traditional party allegiance.

"I was a Republican forever, but I became an independent in the last two elections. I don’t really vote for a party any more. I vote for who I think will do the best job," Michael Alexander told Al Jazeera.

Trump and Vice President JD Vance have also campaigned in Kansas. According to The Associated Press, the candidates and allied groups have committed approximately $71 million to advertising in the state's Senate contest, making it the most expensive Senate race in Kansas history.

Ohio presents another major challenge for Republicans. Senator Jon Husted, who assumed Vance's former Senate seat after he became vice president, is facing former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown. An Axios report said more than $400 million had been spent or reserved for advertising in the contest as of October 8.

Trump is scheduled to campaign in Chillicothe, Ohio, on October 28, marking his third rally in the state this month. Vance is also scheduled to campaign in North Carolina for Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley, who faces former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper.

Democrats are expanding their campaign presence in Georgia, where former President Barack Obama is scheduled to appear in Atlanta with Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff and gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms. Former Vice President Kamala Harris is beginning a three-day visit to the state ahead of the October 30 end of early in-person voting.

Meanwhile, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson disputed polling that suggests Democrats are positioned to make significant congressional gains.

"We've been from coast to coast," he said during an appearance on Fox News on Monday, "and I'm telling you, the polling is inaccurate."

Ossoff is challenging Republican Mike Collins, while Bottoms is running against Republican Rick Jackson in Georgia. Wisconsin's Marquette Law School is scheduled to release a statewide poll on October 28 examining voter views on inflation, tariffs, the war on Iran and Trump's presidency.