Cook Shifts Mississippi and South Carolina Senate Races Toward Democrats

Changes in the outlook for several US Senate contests and a campaign finance complaint against a Nevada Republican candidate highlighted developments in the 2026 midterm election cycle on October 20. Cook Political Report shifted its assessments of races in Minnesota, Mississippi and South Carolina, while former Nevada Republican Party chairman Bob Seale asked federal regulators to investigate congressional candidate David Flippo over questions about his financial disclosures and campaign reports.

Cook Political Report moved Minnesota's Senate contest in favor of Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, downgrading the race for Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan from "Likely Democrat" to "Leans Democrat." The contest is for an open Senate seat, and the adjustment represents one of the few shifts toward Republicans by major election forecasters so far in the current election cycle, according to the Washington Examiner.

The forecaster also adjusted its ratings for Senate races in Mississippi and South Carolina toward Democrats, according to the Washington Examiner. The Washington Post's October 20 report separately highlighted the Mississippi and South Carolina contests as moving in a more favorable direction for Democrats, alongside the developing dispute surrounding Nevada's congressional race.

In Nevada, Seale filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission on Tuesday against Flippo, a Republican seeking a seat in Congress. The complaint draws on reporting by several news organizations that raised questions about the candidate's campaign finance disclosures and personal finances.

Mother Jones reported that a major donor identified in Flippo's Federal Election Commission filing said the donor had not contributed to his campaign. The Nevada Independent reported that Flippo had failed to submit a required personal financial disclosure document and examined questions about his claims of self-financing the campaign.

Seale, who served two terms as Nevada treasurer in the 1990s and ran for the same congressional seat in 1996, argued that the reported discrepancies warranted federal scrutiny.

"This allegation raises serious concerns about the accuracy of the reports that Respondents filed with the Commission," Seale wrote in the complaint, requesting an investigation.

Seale compared Flippo's situation to that of former Republican congressman George Santos, who was expelled from the House in 2023 after facing accusations of financial misconduct and numerous falsehoods about his background. Santos received a prison sentence of more than seven years, but President Donald Trump commuted his sentence, according to The Washington Post.

Explaining his decision to challenge a fellow Republican, Seale criticized what he viewed as an attempt to avoid accountability.

"I find it offensive that he thinks he can get away with it," Seale told The Washington Post, adding that he remains a registered Republican but has never supported Trump. He also said he would "likely" vote for Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson, Flippo's opponent.

The Flippo campaign responded by criticizing The Washington Post's reporting on Seale's complaint. A campaign spokesperson also pointed to a separate request by the Washoe County Republican Party chair for an FBI investigation into Benitez-Thompson.

Riley Sutton, Benitez-Thompson's campaign manager, dismissed that separate complaint.

"meritless," Sutton said of the FBI complaint, according to The Washington Post.