Demographer Projects China Population Will Fall to 320 Million by 2100

China could have a population of just 320 million by 2100, according to independent Chinese demographer Fuxian Yi, whose new research challenges official population figures and warns of a prolonged demographic contraction. Published in the journal Contemporary China Review, Yi's analysis argues that China's actual population may already be substantially smaller than government estimates suggest.

Yi, a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, estimates that China's official population count is overstated by approximately 130 million people. His projection also incorporates persistently low fertility rates, which have failed to recover despite the government's abandonment of its population control policy a decade ago.

In his monograph, China's Population Data Manipulation, Yi examines discrepancies between official demographic figures and other records. According to the analysis described in Contemporary China Review, he compared population estimates against school enrollment and graduation statistics, vaccination records, household registrations, birth and mortality data, provincial figures, and disaggregated census records.

Yi's findings challenge China's reported population of approximately 1.4 billion people. The research argues that inconsistencies across these datasets raise questions about the reliability of the official figures and the demographic assumptions used in economic and policy planning.

The United Nations also projects a substantial decline in China's population, although its estimates remain higher than Yi's forecast. World Population Prospects projections for China fell from 1.06 billion in estimates published in 2019 to 633 million in estimates published in 2024.

Yi considers the United Nations projections too optimistic. However, the available account does not establish that his estimate of 320 million will ultimately prove accurate.

China's demographic outlook is closely linked to the legacy of its one-child policy, introduced after concerns about rapid population growth prompted Chinese leaders to adopt restrictive birth controls. The policy's origins trace back to Song Jian, a missile expert who applied engineering control-system models to population projections in the late 1970s.

In 1980, Song projected that China's population could exceed 4.2 billion by 2080. That projection contributed to the climate in which the government implemented the one-child policy, which restricted family size and was enforced through coercive practices, including forced abortions and sterilizations.

The foreword to Contemporary China Review describes the policy as a case of applying engineering logic to a complex social system. It states that the policy resulted in hundreds of millions of foregone births and contributed to persistent low fertility and population aging.

Yi's research raises questions about how population estimates have influenced China's economic expectations and international assessments of its future power. He argues that demographic figures affect decisions spanning economic development, social policy, national defense, foreign relations, and international investment.

In his monograph, Yi writes, "This means that China's economic, social, defense, and foreign policies, as well as international investment decisions and foreign governments' policies toward China, have all rested on flawed demographic data."

He adds, "The consequences are profound. Inflated figures led Chinese economists to project that China's economy would far surpass America's, feeding Beijing's 'East rising,"