China Proposes Export Controls on AI and Solar Technologies

China is preparing tighter controls on exports of artificial intelligence and solar technologies as Beijing seeks to regulate the transfer of strategically important capabilities abroad. A proposal published on October 16, 2026, covers 40 technologies across several industries, while separate restrictions target drones with potential military applications. The measures could affect international technology transfers, industrial competition, and access to advanced Chinese systems.

According to ActuIA, China's Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology issued Announcement No. 48 of 2026, opening a consultation period through November 15. The proposal identifies 23 AI technologies, five biomedical technologies, and 12 photovoltaic technologies. A ministry spokesperson said 14 technologies would be prohibited from export and 26 would require licenses.

Companies must already register certain transactions involving technologies listed in the announcement, including operations that began but have not been completed. The requirements took effect on October 16, before the consultation period closes, according to ActuIA.

The proposed framework distinguishes between transferring technology itself and providing access to AI services. According to explanations published by China's Ministry of Commerce and reported by Xinhua, overseas customers using restricted models through application programming interfaces, applications, websites, software-as-a-service platforms, or lightweight local-device deployments would remain outside the large-model export controls.

The ministry spokesperson said, "the vast majority of AI technologies will still be freely exportable."

The spokesperson also said the revision "does not target any particular country, region, or entity." The stated distinction centers on whether restricted technology moves from Chinese territory to another country, rather than whether a foreign customer uses a Chinese-developed AI product.

Open-source technologies already in the public domain through open-source publication, scientific papers, or other means are excluded from the proposed controls, according to the announcement. However, the documents do not clearly establish whether proprietary licensing arrangements for models with publicly available weights qualify for that exemption.

For restricted technologies, transferring ownership, granting a license for use abroad, or shifting effective ownership or control to a foreign entity can trigger registration requirements. A localized overseas deployment of a restricted model could also require authorization once the catalog takes effect, although the ministry has described possible licensing facilitation for cases in which risks are considered manageable.

ActuIA reported that a summary of the technical annex published by Geopolitechs identifies three possible thresholds for covered large models: at least 10²⁶ floating-point operations used in training, at least 2 trillion parameters, or a position among the world's top 10 in public evaluations. The full annex was not available for independent examination in the report.

The Associated Press identified Kimi K3, developed by Moonshot AI, and Qwen3.8-Max, developed by Alibaba, as models that exceed the reported size threshold. Neither model is explicitly named in the proposed catalog, and both had previously released open-weight versions, according to ActuIA.

China is also strengthening controls on unmanned aerial vehicles and related equipment that could serve both civilian and military purposes. Boursorama reported that the government announced the additional restrictions on October 19, with implementation scheduled for November 18. The requirements cover certain drone engines, related technologies, and specific aircraft capable of remaining airborne for three hours.

China's Ministry of Commerce said the equipment covered by the drone rules has clear dual-use applications in civilian and military fields. The measures form part of Beijing's stated commitment to nonproliferation and could expose exporters or resellers who violate the rules to legal penalties. China, the world's largest drone producer, had announced restrictions on drone-component exports to the United States on August 5 in response to US trade sanctions, according to Boursorama.

The proposed photovoltaic controls come as Chinese solar exports transform electricity markets in Asia and Africa. Tecsol-Quotidien, citing analysis by Cécile Maisonneuve published in Les Échos, reported that Chinese solar panels and cells reached export volumes of 68 gigawatts in March 2026, equivalent to the installed photovoltaic capacity of Spain. Asia and Africa accounted for three-quarters of the increase in exports, while approximately 50 countries recorded unprecedented purchasing levels.

Pakistan illustrates the scale of the shift. Solar power reportedly supplied nearly one-third of the country's electricity in the first quarter of 2026, compared with approximately 2% of electricity generation in 2019. According to Tecsol-Quotidien, Pakistan imported about 40 gigawatts of solar panels since 2020, although only 6 gigawatts were officially declared to authorities.

Rising electricity tariffs and outages lasting eight to 10 hours in some regions have encouraged households, farmers, and businesses to install their own solar systems. The expansion is also creating challenges for electricity networks because customers generating more of their own power purchase less electricity from utilities, leaving fixed infrastructure costs spread across fewer customers.

Chinese solar equipment is also helping businesses in Africa address unreliable electricity supplies. In Kolwezi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, a Chinese company equipped a metallurgical plant with solar panels and batteries to replace part of its diesel generator capacity, according to Tecsol-Quotidien.

The proposed export catalog remains under consultation until November 15, 2026. China's separate drone export restrictions are scheduled to take effect on November 18.