Brad Bradford Edges Olivia Chow in Toronto Mayoral Polls

Brad Bradford has moved ahead of incumbent Olivia Chow in two October polls of Toronto voters, tightening the race for mayor ahead of the Oct. 26, 2026, municipal election. Surveys published by Mainstreet Research and Build Canada show Bradford gaining ground as concerns about public safety, the city's direction, and leadership shape the campaign.

Mainstreet Research reported Oct. 20 that Bradford had the support of 48.9% of respondents, compared with 47.5% for Chow, while 13% remained undecided. The survey included 1,000 Toronto adults interviewed Oct. 16-18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

A separate Build Canada poll, commissioned and conducted by the organization from Oct. 11-16, placed Bradford at 48.4% among decided and leaning voters, against 43.7% for Chow. Another 7.9% supported other candidates. The survey reached 991 Toronto adults through random cellphone dialing by text message and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, described the change in the race as a major shift.

"This represents a seismic shift in the mayoral election in Toronto," said Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

Maggi said the contest had narrowed considerably during October after Chow maintained an earlier lead. Mainstreet's regional breakdown showed Bradford ahead in Etobicoke and North York, while Chow led in Scarborough and downtown Toronto.

"While we have seen this race tighten significantly throughout October, Chow had previously led wire to wire and led in three of four regions of Toronto" said Maggi.

The research executive emphasized that the final result would depend on turnout and the candidates' closing campaign efforts.

"This race is truly too close to call, but Bradford now has the upper hand." said Maggi.

Mainstreet also found that Bradford continued to perform strongly among older voters, a demographic Maggi said was more likely to participate in the election.

The Build Canada survey offered a different regional breakdown, putting Bradford ahead of Chow in North York, 50.3% to 43.7%; Scarborough, 52.5% to 36.7%; and Etobicoke, 52.9% to 35.5%. Chow led in Toronto and East York, with 51.7% against Bradford's 42.6%.

The same poll found that 56.5% of respondents believed Toronto was heading in the wrong direction, while 61.2% said the city was a worse place to live than four years earlier. Among Bradford supporters, 86.7% said the city was on the wrong track, compared with 55.5% of Chow supporters who believed it was heading in the right direction.

Voting preferences also varied by housing status and household composition. Build Canada found Bradford had 60% support among voters with children under 18 and led among homeowners, including those with mortgages. Chow led among renters, with 53.2% support against Bradford's 38.9%, and among people living rent-free in homes owned by relatives or friends, at 57.4% against 34.1%.

The campaign has also drawn attention from Toronto's Jewish community, where concerns about antisemitism and public safety have become important election issues. The Canadian Jewish News reported that Michelle Tennen, a 56-year-old Toronto resident who had not previously canvassed for a municipal candidate, had organized volunteers supporting Bradford.

Tennen said her initial support for Bradford stemmed from his status as an alternative to Chow, but her involvement grew as she learned more about his campaign. She described the decision to volunteer as a response to what she sees as declining civility and increasing division in the city.

"It's a thankless job, running a campaign, in any city," said Tennen.

Tennen, who works in Canadian philanthropy and lives in the Davenport ward, said she had previously participated in LGBTQ advocacy, Black Lives Matter, and the Women's March.

"I feel it's important to lend my voice to things that matter to me." said Tennen.

She argued that municipal leadership should help reduce divisions among residents.

"As a leader, I would hope that … part of your mission, and part of your goal is to bring people together," said Tennen.

Tennen added that bringing residents together should be central to the city's vision.

"To me, that should be part of the vision." said Tennen.

She also described changing routines around her weekly visits to her sister, who lives in a group home north of Bathurst Street and Sheppard Avenue. Tennen said recurring anti-Israel demonstrations near a local plaza had made visits to the area distressing for her family.

"I have to drive by that intersection every weekend, and I find it so upsetting," said Tennen.

She also raised concerns about security arrangements at synagogues, Jewish schools, and community events.

"We're the only religion in the city that has to deal with that," said Tennen.

She said the situation should not be considered acceptable.

"It's appalling, and it shouldn't be OK." said Tennen.

Tennen said she had observed Jewish and Persian community members participating in door-to-door campaigning.

"Every weekend, we see Jewish people coming out to door knock," said Tennen.

She also cited Bradford's urban-planning background and his commitment to the mayoral campaign as reasons for her support.

"What resonates with me is that we all love this city, but it doesn't feel like the same city that it once was," said Tennen.

Tennen said she respected Bradford's willingness to invest time and effort in the city.

"And I have a lot of respect for his dedication to wanting to spend the time and the hard work to bring the city back to what we all know it can be." said Tennen.

Public safety has become a central issue amid a series of attacks on Jewish institutions since Oct. 7, 2023. According to Toronto Police Service statistics cited by The Canadian Jewish News, police recorded 99 religiously motivated hate-crime offences in 2025, with 82% classified as targeting Jewish people, who account for roughly 3% of Toronto's population.

Reported incidents included gunfire damaging synagogues, a Jewish girls' school, and Jewish-owned businesses. The North York synagogue Kehillat Shaarei Torah had been vandalized 10 times over three years, while visibly Jewish people were targeted by teenagers using gel-pellet guns during the summer.

Bradford, a city councillor representing Beaches-East York since 2018, previously challenged Chow in the 2023 mayoral byelection, which she won. He has called for a more urgent municipal response to hate crimes, proposed hiring 1,000 additional frontline police officers, and pledged to take an active role on the Toronto Police Service Board.

Bradford also said he would bring police and intelligence agencies across the Greater Toronto Area together to coordinate responses to organized crime and foreign interference. He criticized recurring demonstrations in Jewish neighborhoods and called for stronger action against antisemitism.

"Jewish Torontonians have been the most targeted community for hate crimes in the city for years now," said Bradford.

He said authorities should treat the pattern of attacks as an urgent matter.

"And that should be treated as the emergency that it is." said Bradford.

Chow's record on engagement with Toronto's Jewish community has also faced criticism from Jewish organizations, according to The Canadian Jewish News. The outlet reported that she missed the 2024 first-anniversary memorial of the Oct. 7 attacks, declined a recent mayoral debate on antisemitism, and drew criticism over comments about Israel and Gaza. Chow attended memorials in 2025 and 2026 and events at Toronto's Holocaust Museum.

Toronto's municipal election is scheduled for Monday, Oct. 26, 2026, with the two polls indicating a closely contested race in its final days.