Americans Reject Prediction Market Use for Government Events

A majority of Americans oppose using prediction markets for US elections and government affairs, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted September 30 through October 5. The survey found bipartisan concerns over political outcomes, military actions and policy decisions.

The poll surveyed 4,506 US adults nationwide and had a margin of error of about two percentage points, according to Reuters. Sixty-nine percent of Democrats and 61% of Republicans opposed using prediction markets for election results.

The survey also found 65% of Americans opposed these markets being used for military actions and 63% opposed their use for government policy announcements or decisions. Only 8% and 9%, respectively, supported those uses.

Ronna Schmoker, a 72-year-old Democrat from a Dallas suburb who participated in the poll, said Americans should have protections around personal choices.

"Everyone should make their own decisions about their lives," said Ronna Schmoker, a poll respondent.

"But like anything, you have to have guardrails," said Ronna Schmoker, a poll respondent.

The companies operating prediction markets have argued they provide information about possible outcomes and have controls intended to prevent misconduct. A company spokesperson said public understanding of the industry remains limited.

"It’s why more than 90% of visits are to view markets, not to trade," said a company spokesperson.

"Recognition of the public value of prediction markets is growing, but they’re still brand new to most, and it’s going to take some time for the public to learn more and see the real value," said a company spokesperson.

Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon said public concerns should not be measured by the amount of advertising used to promote prediction markets.

"We see prediction markets everywhere, but don't mistake seeing millions of dollars in advertisements as a sign of growing support," said Jeff Merkley, a Democratic senator from Oregon.

"Folks are rightfully concerned," said Jeff Merkley, a Democratic senator from Oregon.

Michael Clark, a 48-year-old conservative poll respondent from outside Dallas, said he questioned the social impact of assigning financial value to possible outcomes.

"I just don't think it's good for a society to bet on whether things will turn out a certain way," said Michael Clark, a poll respondent.

Glenn Rishton, a 76-year-old Republican poll respondent from Gulfport, Mississippi, compared prediction markets with established financial and commercial activities.

"By that rationale, a major entertainment company owns dozens of financial markets," said Glenn Rishton, a poll respondent.

"It's effectively the same activity," said Glenn Rishton, a poll respondent.

Janessa Manning, a 48-year-old Democrat from Detroit who participated in the poll, said prediction markets should face stricter oversight.

"Prediction markets should have the same level of regulations as other regulated activities," said Janessa Manning, a poll respondent.

"Even though they present themselves differently, they are the same," said Janessa Manning, a poll respondent.