AI and Nuclear Conflict Raise Global Extinction Risks by 2100

A global risk assessment published by The Lancet identified malicious use of artificial intelligence and nuclear conflict as the largest potential threats to human extinction by 2100, with researchers warning world leaders about 17 interconnected dangers affecting health and survival.

The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health compiled the assessment using expertise from 35 leaders in health, economics, security, governance and technology. Researchers examined hundreds of possible dangers and analyzed risks across 204 countries and territories using disability-adjusted life years.

According to the commission, a threat was classified as catastrophic if it could cause at least one billion disability-adjusted life years lost through illness, disability or early death. The assessment also listed climate change, air pollution, pandemics, obesity, smoking and poor mental health among major concerns.

Commission co-chair Professor Christopher JL Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, described the findings as a warning and an opportunity for action.

"The striking finding is not only the scale of these threats, but that humanity still has the agency to act. Across all 17 catastrophic threats, the decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and wellbeing of the next generation. But delaying action will only serve to shift and increase the costs into the future." said Professor Christopher JL Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

The commission said coordinated action across health, finance, climate, defence and security sectors would influence future generations' years of healthy life. Researchers urged investment in health systems and technological innovation.

Dr Natalia Kanem, former executive director of the United Nations Population Fund and co-chair of the assessment, said recent crises showed the need for earlier preparation and broader cooperation.

"Recent global events show us just how quickly stability can give way to crisis, and how costly it is to respond only after disaster strikes. And the global threats to health risk amplifying existing inequalities, with the greatest burden falling on the most vulnerable communities. Yet the future is not inevitable.

The commission makes a compelling case for reshaping the future by embedding foresight into decision-making. Governments and communities must act decisively starting today, to protect health and build a fairer, more peaceful and more secure future for the coming generations." said Dr Natalia Kanem, former executive director of the United Nations Population Fund.

The findings are scheduled to be shared at the three-day World Health Summit in Berlin, Germany, which begins on Sunday.